Moral Luck and Baseball: The High-Profile Ruinous Ball-Strike Call Comes AFTER The Problem Has Been Addressed


Next season, Major League Baseball will implement the Automated Ball-Strike (ABS) Challenge System. For the first time in regular-season history, batters, catchers and pitchers will have the right to challenge balls and strikes. Teams will begin each game with two available challenges and can continue challenging until they lose challenges twice.

The system has been desperately needed for many years, ever since each player’s strike zone could be seen on television screens during game broadcasts. As usual, baseball dragged its metaphorical feet addressing the problem, with the idiotic “bad calls by the umpire are part of the game” argument that traditionalists and ex-players are still using. That logic makes as much sense as defending medical malpractice because “everyone makes mistakes.” Sure, before video technology could prove a key ball or strike call was a bad one, tolerating home plate umpire mistakes (like the one that cost the Boston Red Sox Game 3 of the 1975 World Series and conceivably the Series itself) were part of the game, because nothing could be done about it. Now something can.

The current instant replay system, where managers can challenge safe/out calls on the bases, only became reality when a young pitcher lost a perfect game because an umpire called what should have been the final out of a historic pitching masterpiece a hit on national television. Everybody knew, or should have, that a computer-called strike system would probably enter professional baseball in the same manner, with a terrible ball-strike call changing the outcome of a high profile game.

Baseball was lucky: that tipping point didn’t come until this week, after the point had already tipped. Video evidence is indisputable that the San Diego Padres lost their final game, the deciding one in its National League Wild Card series against the Chicago Cubs, in part because of a terrible strike call against the Padres’ Xander Bogaerts in the ninth inning when the Pads were in the midst of a potential game-tying or go-ahead rally.

With their season hanging in the balance in the winner-take-all wild-card game, Bogaerts, a good if fading hitter, came up to bat after Jackson Merrill’s leadoff homer cut the Padres deficit to 3-1. With a full count, he took a pitch well below the strike zone from Chicago reliever Brad Keller, which should have put him on first base. Instead he was called out on strikes.

The next two batters reached base, so the bad call meant that instead of having the bases loaded with no outs, San Diego only had men on first and second with one out, a huge difference. They didn’t score again in the inning, and the Padres dream of being in the World Series was over.

After the final out, the Padres shouted at the umpires as they left the field, and the confrontation almost became violent. I listened to two baseball commentators yesterday trying to rationalize the disaster—for the Padres, their fans and Major League Baseball generally—and it was nauseating. Hey, no point in getting upset afterwards—the game is over! (Try that one on the family of a murder victim.) I’m sure the umpire feels as bad about the call as the Padres! (Oh. That makes everything all right, then.) There’s no way to know whether the Padres would have won the game if Bogaerts had walked. ( Right. And the Twin Towers might have fallen down on their own with out planes crashing into them…)”There were over a hundred missed strike calls in that game, this one just happened to make a difference.” That one is a direct quote, and no, you idiot, it’s quite possible, indeed likely, that many of the mistaken calls made a difference; we just can’t know what the difference was.

The unpleasant truth for Major League Baseball is that its tardiness in instituting a more reliable tech-based ball-and-strike system finally resulted in a disaster. Fortunately, the game’s apologists can say, “Yes, but that’s the last time it will happen!”

The fix was still too late for the Padres, and baseball fans have every right to be angry about it.

11 thoughts on “Moral Luck and Baseball: The High-Profile Ruinous Ball-Strike Call Comes AFTER The Problem Has Been Addressed

  1. There is a significant statistical difference between 2-1 and 1-2 either way. Most umps get most of their non ball and strike calls correct but most of those calls Stevie Wonder could get right.

  2. It’s going to present some interesting challenges (sic) for players to navigate. Since calls can only be challenged on the field by the players (as I understand it), clubs are really going to need to coach the players on making challenges.

    That call was in the ninth inning — if the Padres had already lost two challenges prior to that, they would still have had no recourse against a bad strike call. So, particularly after a club has already lost a challenge they’d best be pretty sure about the second challenge.

    Now these men are professional hitters, so hopefully they really know the strike zone. I only hope these professional hitters handle this better than they did the shift.

  3. I get it and its about time! Umpires and referees have ruined my life more than once over egregious calls. Jorge Orta was and still is out [and Don Denkinger is still in purgatory if there is a God.]

    This call was bad. And costly. But – One of the first things you are taught in Little League is to “guard the plate” on a 3-2 count. Precisely for this reason – because umps can suck. And do. Its a power trip thing too. “That pitch was too close to take, son!” There’s no drama in calling a ball on 3-2. But they love to ring a guy up and go through the “look at me” histrionics with a called 3rd strike. All while feeling bigger than the game. And there is no recourse. You get tossed for arguing ball and strikes, another injustice. If I think your call was wrong Mr Magoo, you need to hear about it.

  4. This is only going to reduce the incidents but not eliminate them. Once the two challenges are shot, bad calls have no recourse.

    More ethical would be a display indicating every call made by a computer for ball, strike and check swing. Foul fair too.

    There is still plenty for the home umpire to do even without making those calls.

    • Yes, but it’s in line with the current replay system. MLB really doesn’t want constant challenges throughout the game. One of their primary goals has been quicker game play.

      I’m thinking of NCAA basketball tournament games. They can drag out interminably as the refs go to replay time after time to verify calls that they’ve made or add two tenths of a second to the game clock. Is the game better for all that? I doubt it. But it certainly adds a lot of time to the game (and dilutes the value of teams’ timeouts).

      I thin MLB has struck a reasonable balance. Managers have to be strategic and judicious in making challenges during the regular season, and teams have developed lightning fast video review folks to help them with it. Players will need to do the same with this sort of challenge.

      • I agree. And the system will surely be tweaked. I expect managers to work out a signal so only they will decide whether to challenge a call. Two challenges a game should be enough, if you keep getting to challenge as long as you win—and there are many egregious miss-calls in every game.

        • It’s really the best way to do so. I think they have been testing the ABS system in the minors.Technology has been a part of baseball for decades – MLB is just sometimes catching up to its capabilities.

          • They did test it in the independent leagues I was begging for it years ago. I couldn’t be happier…well, if the Red Sox made the next round of the play-offs I’d be happier, but other than that…

        • I think this challenge system is a Rube Goldberg-like disaster. Just two challenges? That aren’t allowed by a video accessed dug out? It’s absurd. Just go to robo calls for every pitch. Tennis has done it, and tennis hasn’t collapsed. All concerned simply defer to the computers. I’m giving this challenger disaster two seasons, max. All robo calls will speed up the games. Most borderline calls are uncalled strikes. All the missed strikes extend the games unnecessarily.

          • As I’ve said before, who possesses the depth perception ability to determine whether pitches are inside or below the strike zone from behind the plate? Absolutely no one. It’s the one thing that’s actually better seen from the dugouts.

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