Here’s the title of Nate Cohn’s essay in the New York Times: “How One Polling Decision Is Leading to Two Distinct Stories of the Election: A methodological choice has created divergent paths of polling results. Is this election more like 2020 or 2022?”(That’s a gift link.)
Duh. The election isn’t “like” 2022 or 2020, and obviously so. If anything, the election is more like 2016, except that Trump has already been President for four mostly successful years, at least theoretically proving that he can do the job, and Hillary Clinton, as certifiably awful as she is, still was more qualified and substantive that the ridiculous Kamala Harris.
Apparently pollsters are relying heavily on so-called “recall vote” weighing, in which how a voter cast a ballot in the last election gives valid data about how he or she will vote in 2024. First, 2022 was a mid-term election, and the dynamics were completely different from a Presidential race. Indeed, everything is completely different from this Presidential election.
Using the last Presidential election as some kind of guide to figuring out this one using Trump 2020 as a comparison to Trump 2024 is also invalid. The election during the pandemic lockdown was sui generis. Trump was the incumbent stuck with miserable conditions thanks to events outside his control, but still: voters tend to blame incumbents. Trump is in 2020 Biden’s position now as the one offering a change from a rotten situation, and Harris, well, who knows what she is, or will be regarded as once enough voters get their heads out of anatomically impossible places and pay attention? That is, if they ever do.
Cohn writes at the end, “A near repeat of the last presidential election is certainly a plausible outcome. In today’s polarized era, who could possibly be surprised by a repeat in Mr. Trump’s third presidential run? If it’s a near repeat, the polls weighted by recall vote won’t just have an excellent night themselves, but they might also spare the entire industry another four years of misery.”
Wait, a repeat of what? A Trump loss to Biden? No, that can’t be it. Trump doing better than the polls? If that happens, Trump wins, and if Trump wins, how could 2024 be a repeat of an election that Trump lost? The election being close? Do we need polls to guess that?






