Why Current Presidential Polls Are Worthless, And Further Observations On The 2024 Election…


Here’s the title of Nate Cohn’s essay in the New York Times: “How One Polling Decision Is Leading to Two Distinct Stories of the Election: A methodological choice has created divergent paths of polling results. Is this election more like 2020 or 2022?”(That’s a gift link.)

Duh. The election isn’t “like” 2022 or 2020, and obviously so. If anything, the election is more like 2016, except that Trump has already been President for four mostly successful years, at least theoretically proving that he can do the job, and Hillary Clinton, as certifiably awful as she is, still was more qualified and substantive that the ridiculous Kamala Harris.

Apparently pollsters are relying heavily on so-called “recall vote” weighing, in which how a voter cast a ballot in the last election gives valid data about how he or she will vote in 2024. First, 2022 was a mid-term election, and the dynamics were completely different from a Presidential race. Indeed, everything is completely different from this Presidential election.

Using the last Presidential election as some kind of guide to figuring out this one using Trump 2020 as a comparison to Trump 2024 is also invalid. The election during the pandemic lockdown was sui generis. Trump was the incumbent stuck with miserable conditions thanks to events outside his control, but still: voters tend to blame incumbents. Trump is in 2020 Biden’s position now as the one offering a change from a rotten situation, and Harris, well, who knows what she is, or will be regarded as once enough voters get their heads out of anatomically impossible places and pay attention? That is, if they ever do.

Cohn writes at the end, “A near repeat of the last presidential election is certainly a plausible outcome. In today’s polarized era, who could possibly be surprised by a repeat in Mr. Trump’s third presidential run? If it’s a near repeat, the polls weighted by recall vote won’t just have an excellent night themselves, but they might also spare the entire industry another four years of misery.”

Wait, a repeat of what? A Trump loss to Biden? No, that can’t be it. Trump doing better than the polls? If that happens, Trump wins, and if Trump wins, how could 2024 be a repeat of an election that Trump lost? The election being close? Do we need polls to guess that?

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Unethical (Cowardly, Equivocating) Tweet of the Month: American University

Yecchh.

If I were still teaching legal ethics at American’s law school, I would resign in protest over this.

“Remember Pearl Harbor and the members of the Japanese and German communities that suffered tragic losses in the weeks that followed that tragic day.”

“Remember 9/11, and the many who died that day, including the brave terrorists who sacrificed their lives for what they believed, and those American soldiers, Iraqi combatants and brave Taliban warriors who died in the months and years that followed.”

What needs to be remembered is that on October 7, not for the first time, Palestinian terrorists murdered innocent Jewish civilians in Israel as part of the long-standing mission of wiping that nation from the map. We need to remember the victims, the perpetrators of this crime against humanity, the motives behind this horrific act, and the anti-Israel and anti-Semitic forces in the U.S. and abroad that are enabling the terrorists by condemning and attempting to block Israel’s necessary military response.

Often in life, one has to pick a side in a conflict after careful consideration of the issues and values involved. If you don’t have the courage and integrity to do that and accept the consequences of your choice, then shut up and stay on the sidelines with the other weenies.

American University is teaching its students exactly the wrong ethical lesson.

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Added: And here is the fatuous, intellectually bankrupt “Imagine”-level twaddle from Barack Obama, insulting the intelligence of everyone who reads it:

“One year ago, Hamas launched a horrific attack against Israel, killing over 1,400 Israeli citizens – including defenseless women, children, and the elderly – and kidnapping hundreds more. Today, the prospects of peace seem more distant than ever. But we continue to hope for a return of all the hostages, an end to the violence, a rejection of hate, and a future in which both Israelis and Palestinians can enjoy the security and stability that most of them yearn for.”

Ethics Observations on the Stupid But Satisfying Heinz Ad Controversy

The overall lesson: “You can’t win, you can’t break even, so you might as well stop trying to pander to the woke at all and let the metaphorical chips fall where they may.”

Believe it or not, that innocuous ad has triggered controversy from the racial offense and grievance mob. Apparently it promotes negative black stereotypes! That’s strange: the problem in the U.S. black community is that most children are born without their parents being married at all: this happy photo rejects that reality. It also looks like a rather affluent family wedding: isn’t the negative stereotype that black families are poor? (Although, come to think of it, what up-scale wedding reception would serve spaghetti with Heinz tomato sauce from a jar?) And aren’t whites supposedly to be racists? How is an inter-racial marriage perpetuating that negative stereotype? Wait, is the stereotype that the older balck woman is wearing a hat?

No, the complaint seems to be that the ad shows the groom’s white parents and an older black woman who represents the bride’s mother. See, the ad “erased” black fathers: it implies that the bride’s black dad is off whoring, or something, and that Mom is a single mother. Who would see the ad that way, except those who embrace the negative stereotype with their own confirmation bias?

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Unethical Quote of the Week: Ethics Villain Hillary Clinton [Corrected]

[I]f the platforms, whether it’s Facebook or Twitter/X or Instagram or TikTok, whatever they are, if they don’t moderate and monitor the content, we lose total control. And it’s not just the social and psychological affects, it’s real life.”

—Hillary Clinton, joining the chorus of Democrats, progressives and national ticket nominees past and present  advocating restricting free speech for the greater good.

Here is what a Pollyanna sap I am: I read the “we lose total control” section in several right-wing media posts, and assumed Hillary was unfairly taken out of context. After all, she’s not, or didn’t used to be, stupid. She ruthless and bitter and the U.S. ducked a metaphorical bullet by not electing her President, but surely, surely, Clinton wouldn’t be so careless and foolish as to say that out loud; surely she was a victim of selective editing. Then I checked the clip and the transcript. Nope, Clinton really said it and meant it. Ooh, Gina wants a word!

Thank-you, Gina!

Back to Hillary on CNN: Michael Smerconish, who is often cited as the most objective CNN host, didn’t faint and fall over on his face, then pop up to say, “What? What the hell is the matter with you?” It’s been the matter with Clinton for a while: Last month, Clinton suggested during an appearance on MSNBC (of course) that Americans accused of interfering in U.S. elections by spreading “propaganda” promoting former President Trump should be civilly or criminally charged. Democrats’ definition of propaganda in recent years often includes “the truth.”

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I Don’t Have A Clue What The Real Story Is Regarding The FEMA Response To The Hurricane, But I Do Know This…

…the fact that I don’t know and couldn’t possibly find out because there are no news sources I can trust shows just how incompetent, biased and pernicious American journalism has become.

It is unethical, I resent it, I’m disgusted with it, and I condemn it, none of which does any good.

Republicans in general and President Trump in particular have been harshly criticizing the FEMA response to Hurricane Helene, Trump in his usual meat-axe fashion. Naturally, CNN rushed to the Biden Administration’s rescue with this “factcheck” replete with a denial that Harris “stole” FEMA funds as if anyone seriously believed Trump meant “stole” literally, or that Harris was literally a thief. The Axis mainstream media would rather do this deflection than report the far more consequential issue that FEMA is claiming it has run out of money for American disaster relief while the Biden Administration is spending like the proverbial drunken sailor on Ukraine, “humanitarian assistance” to Gaza, and dealing with the consequences of it disastrous border policies.

DEI incompetent Dept. of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, while touring the carnage in North Carolina, told the press that the Federal Emergency Management Agency was going to run out of money because the budget is currently working under a “continuing resolution” until after the election, a situation he does not regard as “stable.” I get it: it’s the Republicans’ fault:

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Sunday Afternoon Ethics Round-Up, 10/6/24: The Election Cometh

With a month to go, I am cautiously optimistic that the American public will reject the cynical, dishonest, undemocratic candidacy of Kamala Harris and the inexcusable Tim Walz. I am pessimistic about the nation avoiding another Electoral College-elected President who trailed in the popular vote.

Right now, it sure looks like this is where he are headed, and such an unfortunate result will almost certainly spark violence, again give Democrats an excuse to deny Trump’s legitimacy as President, lead to further assaults on the Constitution (which Democrats increasingly want eliminate or marginalize), and guarantee another four years of escalating unethical, divisive, dangerous partisan warfare. Trump, of course, will not help matters as he will not be able to resist gloating and trolling, as is his pattern. Great. I can’t wait.

The popular vote/ Electoral vote conflict is almost entirely California’s fault. Harris votes will overwhelm Trump votes by nearly 2-1 in our most populous state, and that is because California has become more of a cult than anything else. Its voters are bat-crazy over climate change hysteria, increasingly don’t like enforcing laws, sympathize with shop-lifters, extol illegal immigrants, and enable censorship. Significantly, California is the only state seriously contemplating the very unserious, irresponsible and racist policy of reparations, even though slavery was never legal in the state. On my cognitive dissonance scale, winning the popular vote in California is an indictment, not an accomplishment.

In other matters…

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“Nah, There’s No Mainstream Media Bias” Watch: The NYT Isn’t Even Pretending Any More

I’m kind of ticked off: Ann Althouse mocked many of the same unethical items in the Sunday Times front page this morning that I noticed immediately, but Ann gets up earlier on Sundays than I do.

The Times has this:

If you bother to read the article, a “60 Minutes” interview apparently is the one that the Times thinks isn’t “friendly.” Anyone who believes that didn’t watch the Vice-Presidential debate. CBS is a card-carrying member of the Axis; not only that, but interviews on that show are edited before they air. Does the Times really expect us to believe that one of Harris’s attacks of Authentic Frontier gibberish won’t end up on the cutting room floor? As for the others: “The View”? “The View?”The  biased, race-baiting progressive ignoramuses on the dumbest new show on television (Remember: Sonny Hostin, the one lawyer on the show, implied that the eclipse was proof of climate change  doesn’t interview Democrats, they fawn over them. The ladies recenly let Biden lie almost non-stop in his “historic” appearance, and when he boasted about the “Violence Against Women Act,” nobody asked him about the rape accusation against him by a former Senate staffer—that would have been “unfriendly.” Colbert uses political guests, all Democrats, to set up Trump-bashing, his obsession.

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Another Week, Another Dumb Question To “The Ethicist”

There was a time when I thought I would have enjoyed the job of being the New York Times advice columnist, “The Ethicist.” In the last year or so, however, the questions the current column-holder has answered have tended to indicate basic ethics problem-solving skills among the public have fallen to an abysmal level. And these are supposed to be the best questions received by Kwame Anthony Appiah, a philosophy professor at NYU. Heavens to Betsy, what are the other questions like?

This week’s top question was this:

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The Fake James Earl Jones Problem

Oh yeah, I can see where this is going…

Vanity Fair reports that in 2022, Lucasfilm and Skywalker Sound hired a Ukrainian startup called Respeech to recreate Darth Vader’s voice for its upcoming mini-series “Obi-Wan Kenobi.” The recently departed James Earl Jones was then alive but 91 and his voice was waeker and not as resonant as in his “THIS is CNN!” days. Using AI, Respeech used archived “Star Wars” sound tracks footage to recreate Jones’ iconic Darth Vader’s tones from the original 1980s trilogy. Jones was satsified with the fake version of him, and signed off on using his archival voice recordings for future (lousy) “Star Wars” spin-offs. When “Obi-Wan Kenobi” premiered, nobody guessed that Darth Vader’s voice was AI generated.

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An Ethics Estoppel, Double Standard Classic From The Axis After Walz’s Meltdown

I actually laughed out loud reading Politico’s “Walz says he ‘speaks like everybody else.’ And it’s not working for the campaign.” representative excerpts:

  • “’Any time you are forced to go off message is never welcome,” said Mike Mikus, a Democratic strategist in Pennsylvania. ‘But in the end, voters are looking for somebody who is more concerned about what these candidates are going to do to improve their lives than, ‘Did he get every single fact correct?’”

That was the one that got me  laughing. It is exactly the argument Trump defenders have been making for years, to the sneers of the Left.  How dare any Democrat resort to it?

  • “Yeah, look, I have my dates wrong,” Walz told reporters in Harrisburg. “I was in Hong Kong in China in 1989. … I speak like everybody else speaks. I need to be clearer.”

Another Trump defender line: “He speaks like normal people.” Continue reading →