1. I had written some time ago that the best possible outcome ethically would be a Trump landslide, and the worst would be a Trump win in the Electoral College while losing the popular vote. Somehow I missed the obvious worst scenario, which is what we are getting: a mega-2000 mess, with multiple states in doubt for various questionable factors, resulting in litigation by both sides, stretching on into December.
This was one more example of how the false and biased polls interfered with legitimate analysis.
2. I have frequently praised Richard Nixon for passing on the opportunity to challenge the results in Illinois, Texas and other states after the 1960 election, and saying that it was more important to respect the process and not throw an election into turmoil. Of course, based on what we know about Nixon. That may have been a ploy and virtue signaling: while there was certainly some voting shenanigans, notably in Richard Daley’s notoriously corrupt Chicago, Nixon maybe have been told that he would lose anyway, and that challenging the results would make it harder for him to come back and win in ’64 or ’68. Nonetheless, Nixon set the norm, and Al Gore broke it in 2000. Now it seems insane for a party to not to challenge a close election if there seems to be any question about the legitimacy of the result.
That shift is also a reflection of the widening chasm between the two parties. There wasn’t much difference philosophically between the Democrats and Republicans in 1960, nor between Nixon and Kennedy. (There wasn’t much difference between their ethical instincts either, but we didn’t know that at the time.) Today there is every reason to believe that for a party to just shrug off the possibility that a Presidency has been stolen in the best interests of the nation is a breach of duty and a betrayal of the public trust.
However, a party (like the Democrats since 2016) or a candidate (like Hillary Clinton) continuing to deny the results after they have been validated is unforgivable and destructive.
3. That Democrats could not win the Senate and even lost a part of its majority margin in the House is the final measure of just how terrible—incompetent or deliberately dishonest– the polls were. Wrote Adam Mill in part yesterday on American Greatness,
[We] can suspect that the polls consistently erred on the side of a President Biden for the same reason that the legacy media so clearly abuses its readers with misinformation: They’re liars. The polls are lies and the reporting on the polling is lies.The signs have been there for months. Trump supporters knew they were being lied to. But some Biden voters suspected it. A few true liberal holdouts began nervously grumbling about the Big Tech censorship of the Hunter Biden financial scandals. African Americans, Hispanics, LGBTQ, and blue-collar workers increasingly have resisted their typecasting. Famous rappers began giving cultural permission to vote for Trump.
Like kamikaze planes splashing harmlessly in the sea adjacent to their targets, the legacy media either lied to America or themselves as they squandered the last shreds of illusionary credibility. The polls were never meant to reflect public opinion. They were always about shaping the opinion. And as the day of reckoning approached and the real opinion failed to follow the pollster’s wishful thinking, many tried to pull out of their dives, reporting a “tightening” race.
Balderdash. The opinions have not changed that much in just a few days.
I think I agree with this analysis. And please stop defending Nate Silver. If he were not biased himself, and either blinded by it or deliberately assisting the media’s attempt to distort public perception, he wouldn’t use polls to base his “models” on. Garbage in, garbage out. This time, polls 538 rated as A+ flunked miserably. This is known as vouching for an untrustworthy entity.
4. Someone has to point it out: there has been a lot of “Worst white supremacy candidate ever!” gloating in the conservative media about the fact that the only demographic in which Trump lost support between 2016 and 2020 was “white males.” Gee, I wonder why this was…
Isn’t it obvious? In 2016, Trump was the only white male in the race. Of course he lost some knee-jerk male voters who were Democrats when their loyalty was divided. Clinton was wrong to attribute her loss to gender bias, but just as there are women who voted for Hillary just because she was female, there were significant numbers of white male voters who voted against her for the same reason. So Trump, we are told, lost 5 points off his white male base.
Duh.
5. The Trump-hating, biased, Big Lie wielding Washington Post wrote today, “In Arizona, Biden’s lead narrowed overnight, leaving the Republican incumbent with a small path to victory there.”
This means that Fox News calling Arizona early for Biden was, as I wrote yesterday, a) false b) wrong, c) suspicious and d) evidence of a double standard, since it held off calling other states for the President when he was far ahead and obviously would remain there, like Texas. Even if Biden eventually wins Arizona, the fact that it is still in doubt means Fox News’ call—with a career Democrat making the call, coincidentally—was justly criticized, by me as well as many others.
6. Fake News Dept. No, the Trump campaign does not want to “stop counting ballots” in Pennsylvania and others states, but the aforementioned Post, among others, keeps stating it that way, confusing at least one Ethics Alarms commenter and a lot of the Trump Deranged. The campaign has sued to halt and pause the counting until it can be monitored to the Trump campaign’s satisfaction, a reasonable step for anyone who remembers the 2000 chad-counting fiasco. The unexplained wave of Biden votes in Wisconsin and Michigan justifies such caution. From the Daily Caller:
Elections officials in Michigan and Wisconsin refused to explain Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden’s sudden and dramatic vote tally increase that occurred in both states Wednesday morning. Michigan and Wisconsin state officials warned against misinformation being shared online, but wouldn’t comment on specific vote tranches that appeared to show former Vice President Joe Biden suddenly receiving more votes than President Donald Trump. The two battleground states remained tightly contested as of Wednesday afternoon, according to The New York Times….Voter tallies from both states spiked at around 6 a.m. in favor of Biden, according to graphs of live tallies posted by FiveThirtyEight. Trump tweeted multiple times Wednesday morning claiming that officials are finding votes for Biden “all over the place.”
…However, Benson said she was unfamiliar with the specifics of the vote count released Wednesday morning. Benson’s office also would not comment on the specifics of the tally in question.“We cannot speculate as to why the results lean one way or another,” Michigan Department of State spokesperson Aneta Kiersnowski told The Daily Caller News Foundation in a statement.
There may be nothing irregular at all, but this kind of “humina humina” creates the appearance of impropriety, and that’s the last thing we need in a close election.
Why are questions being asked? How’s this for a reason: in Michigan, Biden somehow got 138,339 votes and Trump got none, zero, in an overnight vote-dump.
7. Is there anything significantly irregular or potential evidence of attempts to “steal the election”? Well, in addition to the sudden appearance of over 100,000 Biden votes in Michigan,
- 118-year-old “William Bradley” voted via absentee ballot in Wayne County, Michigan. William Bradley died in 1984. This, of course, has always been a danger in mail-in ballots. How often it occurs, nobody knows, but denying it does occur, as Democrats do, is a straight up lie.
- In Michigan, pseudo-journalist James O’Keefe claims, “Whistleblower Details Directive From Superiors: Back-Date Late Mail-In-Ballots As Received November 3rd, 2020 So They Are Accepted “Separate them from standard letter mail so they can hand stamp them with YESTERDAY’S DATE & put them through”
- In Antrim County, Michigan, where Trump beat Hillary Clinton by 30 points in 2016. vote totals there showed Biden ahead of Trump by 29 points, a result that couldn’t possibly be accurate, as many journalists pointed out.
- Yet another all-Biden vote dump happened in Wisconsin over night as Thursday prepared to dawn. Biden miraculously overcame a 4.1-point Trump lead with several vote dumps in which he got 100 percent of the votes and Trump got zero.
- In Pennsylvania, the Democratic Secretary of State announced that late mail-in ballots would be counted as though they were received on Election Day, even if they have no postmark, and the plan was approved by the Pennsylvania Supreme Court, which cited the need for “equitable relief” to address mail delays amid the pandemic. These are ballots that come in after Election Day that don’t even have a postmark, with no way to tell when the ballots were mailed, or from where.
This scheme is begging for litigation, and will surely get it.
8. Ethics Alarms is officially dubbing what we are experiencing as the 2020 Election Ethics Train Wreck.
______________________________
Source: The Federalist
Ethics Alarms 
Jack wrote, “This was one more example of how the false and biased polls interfered with legitimate analysis.”
I literally just posted this 4 minutes ago…
I am to the point of being an activist against political polls.
3) Democrats are still working to win the Senate, by the way, with many more miraculously discovered “uncounted” ballots from traditionally Democrat strong holds in Georgia.
I doubt they are going to get it.
Perdue is still leading by over 100k — don’t think that one is in doubt. The other Georgia race is headed for a run off, and that means only one GOP candidate. It may be a hugely contested race, but it doesn’t look like it’ll be for control of the Senate.
In North Carolina, we are hearing that there are 113k absentee ballots that have not been returned. The statutory deadline for returning these ballots is 3 days after the election — tomorrow. However, the state Board of Elections decided to extend that by a week and the state Supreme Court (which coincidentally is 6-1 Democratic right now, I believe) let them do it. This was one of the cases that the U.S. Supreme Court declined to overturn.
However, Trump is ahead by about 75k and Tillis by about 95k, so those results are unlikely to change. The one race that might flip is the Supreme Court Chief Justice, which the Republican leads by 3000 votes or so, and, of course, there are some relatively close down ballot races as well.
We shall see in a week — don’t expect anything further from North Carolina before the 13th.
Or Nevada before the 12th. These states are trying to run out the clock until it doesn’t matter.
It may get into litigation. But fraudulently cast and outright invented ballots will look exactly the same as legal ballots once they are mixed in with the lot and before the eyes of judges. Just like money laundering.
Once or twice is an “appearance of impropriety”. But episode after episode after episode?
I mean, watching someone go have dinner at Jeffrey Dahmer’s house and never seeing them leave can be chalked up to “oh well I was busy I just didn’t notice him leave”.
But after the 20th person going to Jeffrey Dahmer’s house for dinner and never seeing any of them leave combined with Jeffrey Dahmer never buying groceries and consistently gaining weight should maybe cause people to think something’s happening that looks exactly like what’s happening.
“But after the 20th person going to Jeffrey Dahmer’s house for dinner and never seeing any of them leave”
On the subject of another of WESconsin’s favorite sons, the $#!tty neighborhood that was his former stomping grounds boasts a marvelous restaurant, the Five-O-Clock Steakhouse.
How $#!tty? You have to pay a guy to watch your car!
“Why are questions being asked? How’s this for a reason: in Michigan, Biden somehow got 138,339 votes and Trump got none, zero, in an overnight vote-dump.” Jack, the author of that allegation later deleted his tweet and said it was due to a typo on a report he reviewed. False. Please fact-check. You are a reliable commenter and it would be disappointing to see commentary lose credibility for not fact-checking. Or maybe you wrote it before the allegation was withdrawn.
Which just raises more questions.
Michael, I did factcheck this. Buzzfeed later reported that a spokesperson at Decision Desk HQ that the sudden votes for Biden were the result of a “data error” from a “file created by the state that we ingested.” Michigan noticed—or had to acknowledge the error it updated its count. So the vote dump was the result of an an extra zero that had been tacked onto Biden’s vote total in Shiawassee County, Michigan. The error was discovered because people noticed and demanded an explanation and an investigation. Was it just an innocent a typo or an attempt to boost Biden’s vote count? Either way, the episode was suspicious and erodes trust during a close election…and like the routine “Oops!” news stories, these things only seem to go in one direction.
What I wrote was,
“Why are questions being asked? How’s this for a reason: in Michigan, Biden somehow got 138,339 votes and Trump got none, zero, in an overnight vote-dump.” That’s correct, and the typos wasn’t from the critical reporter, but by the State.
After correcting for a zero…that’s still a 5-digit number that netted Trump… zero votes right?
Sure seems like it.
So Banana Republic it is then.
I hope someone re-records the national anthem on some sort of crackly old record player just so we get *all* the details right for our new regime.
When I was a kid one of my peers referred to a petty tyrant of a teacher as a “cheap two-bit dictator of a banana republic.” Never thought we’d see it on a national level.
Thanks, Jack. And I said the typo was from a report he reviewed. Would have been more clear had I said “state report”
Right. And we should all be able to trust the state reports on how votes are being counted. This kind of thing hurts.
They’re counting on it being quickly forgotten. This conservative foot soldier isn’t forgetting.
I’m not forgetting either. The media, however, will promptly pretend none of it ever happened. Social media will censor it. They will try to wash it all away.
The question is, will people let them? I think people are angry, and what they are doing is leading no where good.
A Biden election in this particular enivronment…one which makes even amateur 3rd world nations look like they know their election-fixing business only means ONE thing – A VERY fragile DNC coalition going into 2022 and 2024. I call it a DNC coalition because this decade is going to be a party realignment. Both parties are going to have to take a long hard look at their party platforms and decide what is still useful pursuit for each party’s core value set…each party is going to have to look at a changing American population – shrinking and growing constituencies with changing value sets of their own.
Any Biden mismanagement or ham-fistedness (which is almost assured), increases the odds of a great mid-term “correction” that favors the GOP.
Oh no, the media is already saying that Joe’ desire to restore normalcy may be impossible, of course it isn’t his fault or his party’s fault. The idea of him being a unifier is, I regret to say, idiotic on its face. After four years of waging political war on the president and political and sometimes physical war on his supporters, the idea that somehow the folks you’ve been waging that war on will or should “come home” for the good of the nation means you think they are as gullible as autistic children, as stupid as the mentally retarded, as unable to remember as crustaceans (lobsters and crabs have almost no capability to remember), or some combination of the above. That’s adding insult to injury. As it is it appears that the president’s supporters are not buying this huge ballot dump, and aren’t going to just sit back and allow this election to be stolen. At this point it’s not going to be just about hating the president. It’s going to be about hating the party. The Democrats called Trump a dumb, crude, obnoxious bastard, and he was, but he was pretty much the focus of the hate. There’s a good chance that the 1/2 this country that is going to see a Biden presidency as a result of wide fraud is going to loathe the party that pulled that fraud, and see everyone in it as a crook, a traitor, and a deceiver, or an enabler of crooks, traitors, and deceivers. For the last four years we’ve seen how difficult it is for a president utterly loathed by the other side to govern. What makes Biden think that the GOP members still in power will not visit on him the same kind of abuse visited by his party on Trump? What makes him think that the Senate won’t drill into the Hunter thing? What makes him think that, if they pick up a few more House seats in 2022 (a distinct possibility) that a GOP House won’t impeach him over that,, just to remind him, and the other side, that the same tactics they used can be used on them, and payback’s a bitch.
They started the divisive rhetoric during Bush’s 2nd term. They upped the ante from 2008-2016 by having the highest elected official of the land *openly* disparage half the electorate in a fashion *NO* president had EVER done. They spent 2016-2020 in outright rebellion with no bullets.
Biden says “let’s get along and heal the wounds”
Mid-level Left wing pundits and journalists (the one’s that represent the intellectual center of upcoming DNC generations) all responded with a “Hell No, we HATE Republicans”. Not even a pretend passing “yeah, we won, let’s get along GOP!” throw away sentiment.
*THAT’S* why there can be no healing. And it won’t be the GOP’s fault. (like always).
“Buzzfeed later reported that a spokesperson at Decision Desk HQ that the sudden votes for Biden were the result of a ‘data error’ from a “file created by the state that we ingested.”
What does “data error from a file created by the state that we ingested” mean? That is more frightening than the report of 100% of newly found Biden votes. How can you trust the state’s vote tallies if there is a “file created by the state”?
jvb
He wants the count stopped until it can be fairly monitored. Poll workers in BLM masks threw all the Trump supporting poll watchers out of the vote processing centers.
They also boarded up windows so no one could see what they were doing.
They are cheating. So yes, stop the count until the cheating can be monitored.
Yeah, this is bullshit. No one boards up windows unless they want to hide what they are doing.
That’s two esteemed commenters who believe the crazy Big Lie-related Fake News that Trump is trying to freeze the vote totals.
No wonder this mind of crap works on lesser intellects…
Unsurprisingly a judge in Michigan threw out the Trump Campaign’s suit, saying it was almost moot because the court was almost over.
It’s really looking like the President has no way out of this one. These lawsuits just aren’t going anywhere and one more state will put Biden over the top. Should he keep appealing, or just give up when the next state gets called?
It’s odd, but I can’t find anything on poll workers in BLM masks throwing out Trump supporters. Can you provide a link? The only thing I can find is poll workers refusing to let people with BLM t-shirts vote.
Perhaps the plywood was put up to protect the workers from people storming the vote processing center.
https://www.the-sun.com/news/1747044/trump-fans-storm-arizona-voting-center-joe-biden-michigan/
And there is no obligation to let people outside the center view the process, since there are representatives from both parties present inside. In fact, many are live streaming the process so they can go home and watch.
There were videos of it on Twitter and the live election blogs yesterday. Now all I can find is this: https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/11/video-detroit-election-workers-cheer-gop-election-monitor-gop-lawyer-removed-tcf-center/
That is not my preferred News outlet for verifiable information, so I will keep looking.
To be perfectly honest, I think I was misled by people on the internet about the BLM wearing poll workers. I’m not finding anything with sufficient merit to back that up with. There is a video of a Biden mask wearing worker preventing a poll watchers from entering, video of poll workers cheering poll watchers being thrown out, and video of windows being boarded up.
But BLM gear does not seem to feature in any of those. So I apologize for spreading misinformation.
I think you’d better pull this picture of BLM-masked workers.
I guess you could argue that he only wanted the counting to stop so they could monitor the counting. Although, he didn’t say that during his election night speech. I guess if he DID say that, I would have viewed it differently.
I took it to mean he thought the votes coming in after the polls closed were fraudulent, and he didn’t want them counted:
“We don’t want them to find any ballots at four o’clock in the morning and add them to the list. Okay?”
For heaven’s sake, Tom…by this time you and everyone should know how Trump talks, and the media game of intentionally interpreting what he blathers to be as sinister as possible is old and desperate. The campaign’s lawsuit made it clear what he meant. The President couldn’t stop a vote count if he tried. No, he didn’t say the pandemic was a hoax, he did not say that white supremacists were “fine people,” and he didn’t propose not counting the votes.
I haven’t read the lawsuit, I’m just going by what he said. Again, I’m not a never-Trumper and I don’t think he said the pandemic is a hoax. I’m just basing this off what I saw him say live. I got so angry too, and I never get angry at what Trump says, but for some reason, his comment really bothered me.
I feel like he’s trying to undermine the legitimacy of legal votes, which is the problem I have. I actually almost voted for him!
You’re just adopting a really unjustified interpretation, Tom. What matters is what he does, and what he has done is to ask a halt to monitored votes. So that’s what he meant. This isn’t hard. or shouldn’t be.
Now read the Andrew McCarthy essay I linked to in the last post, and it explains what are legitimate and illegitimate votes.
It’s fine if he wants to monitor the votes, but I’d argue that Trump has a pretty large megaphone and that what Trump says DOES matter a lot. I get what you’re saying, but tons of Trump supporters take what he says as gospel. I took him to mean he wanted the vote counting to stop because the votes are fraudulent because Biden was gaining, and that was impossible apparently.
I dont know…I’m just very disappointed with the whole situation.
Well, you’re apparently going to never let go of this bone, but I guarantee you no sane Trump supporter thinks he was advocating not counting legal votes, because that makes no sense. And he just said as much to Biden, telling him to alter “Count every vote” to “Count every legal vote.” Which is all the Trump campaign has ever advocated.
Did you read McCarthy’s essay yet?
Right. He doesn’t know how time works.
And I watched his speech on election night, and I took him to mean “we want all voting to stop” to mean that he doesn’t want PA to count anymore votes. Or if you think he was only talking about the votes that were coming in AFTER the polls closed, claiming that they were illegitimate for some reason, he is still trying to prevent actual votes from being counted:
“So our goal now is to ensure the integrity for the good of this nation. This is a very big moment. This is a major fraud in our nation. We want the law to be used in a proper manner. So we’ll be going to the US Supreme Court. We want all voting to stop. We don’t want them to find any ballots at four o’clock in the morning and add them to the list. Okay?”
And I watched his speech on election night, and I took him to mean “we want all voting to stop” to mean that he doesn’t want PA to count anymore votes
Ridiculous. Impossible, and only the inveterate deranged could have thought he would mean that…especially since there is no legal authority anywhere to declare that legitimate votes can’t be counted. You’re following clinical confirmation bias here. Let’s see:there are two possible meanings, one that makes sense and that is indeed the one followed by the campaign, and one that is lunacy and impossible. Occam’s Razor explains which is the obvious interpretation.
Meanwhile, here is North Carolina’s new Lieutenant Governor.
In addition to the Lieutenant Governor, Republicans took 5 of 8 of the Council of State races, and as of the current count they are ahead in every statewide judicial race. The Democrats had hoped for total control of the Supreme Court and flipping one or both houses of the legislature. Instead it looks like they’ll have a bare 4-3 majority in the Supreme Court, and it appears the Republicans have increased their majorities in the legislature.
Overall, except for the presidency, it wasn’t a bad day for the GOP — they held the Senate, won back 6 seats (so far) in the House, added a governor, and I understand flipped one legislative house to Republican control. Considering that we’re fixing to do another redistricting and we may well have to resist coming encroachments by the federal government, that is a good sign.
The mainstream media are calling it a down-ticket disaster. The GOP is by no means dead, and this was sure as the devil no 2006 or 2008. In fact, if anything, it shows that the Democrats don’t own the black and brown populations as much as they thought. The Democratic Party is turning to hatred and fraud to get anywhere, and that’s the sign of a party that’s in trouble.
The subtle inklings of what’s coming among minorities was seen in the past few days.
And what do the reliable leftwing knee jerks take away from this?
Doubling down on racist epithet.
CNN just published a “YEP THE GOP IS STILL RACIST” article.
Ida Rae Belles or whatever name that fake academic ghost-writes her tripe under is literally redefining long held demographic descriptions – something like “Oh Hispanics aren’t really Hispanic, most of them are white anyway!” nonsense.
I think it was her also who screamed that black males who went for Trump are proof that “toxic masculinity” is a disease in the African American community. When an increased percentage of Hispanic voters opened their eyes to the obvious open road of inclusion in the GOP, she ranted something about “Of course…in their culture they love strong men and machismo”.
I mean, I’m not going to go into detail on how literally EVERY unexpected minority who voted GOP gave as their reason that the Democrat governing platform is terrifying to them but it’s clear they started breaking for the GOP for *gasp* non-racial reasons.
As the stranglehold of identity politics and grievance mongering wears off, I invite….I IMPLORE…left wing talking heads to keep doubling down on the message that minorities are ignorant fools who can’t see anything clearly. Please PLEASE keep berating people for thinking for themselves.
Scratch a Democrat….find an actual Racist.
They are afraid of losing power due to changes in demographics.
I am waiting to see the reasons why Latinos in Florida voted overwhelmingly in favor of Trump. Also, why two almost exclusively Hispanic counties along the Texas-Mexico border also voted in Trump’s favor. I heard that idiot Maxine Waters state that blacks voting for Trump need to pay a huge price for voting against her interests, along the lines of Uncle Toms and house niggers; what is the equivalent for Hispanics who break with the DNC?
Come to think of it, why isn’t the black male and Hispanic Trump vote a bigger discussion point? Ocasio-Cortez, to her credit, stated that the drift of Hispanics from the Democrat Party should be alarming to them, but not many are talking about it.
jvb
Apart from that one thing, how was the play, Mrs. Lincoln?
Silver lining in every cloud, eh? 😉
I love this guy!
I saw Brit Hume on TV last night, commenting on the pollsters, the media and Democrat pundits all incorrectly predicting a Biden landslide and a Blue Wave. Quote: “Bias makes people stupid.” Naturally I thought of EA.
I saw that too and wondered if he reads EA.
I hate that you have been able to demonstrate probable cause for widespread ballot fraud.
Speaking of polls and chasms, THIS SITE has exit polls for each state that reveal some interesting results for comparison. (The link goes to Georgia’s info, but can be backed up from links near the top of the page to choose any state.) For example, Latino men at 51% for Trump, 53% of Biden voters having decided in the last month (would the laptop story getting earlier/more exposure have influenced that?), huge divides in the “most important issues” and “virus vs economy” questions. There are also numbers that add some intriguing detail to certain claims like the oft-touted “democrats more educated” meme.
Of course, how much can be derived from such polls is an open to discussion; the day of election, in-person voting sample may significantly skew answers to some questions more than others, but they still might provide some hints and potential clarification of what is happening on the macro scale.
Oh, and Hank “Guam Might Tip Over” Johnson will be returning to Congress to accurately represent the well-educated democrats infesting his district.
While the blue spike has many logical arguments for it’s presence such as the sudden report from urban areas that take longer to count, the image still will become an iconic meme.
It’s going to be an image forever associated with vote counting in democrat-controlled places.
Election governing entities are going to have to figure out NOW how to make things look WAY less fishy in the future.
The democrats have a long list of “If’s” that could give them the senate.
1 – Biden / Harris win. That puts Harris as the senate president. Then the margin is 50/50.
2 – Both Georgia Senate races go to a January run-off.
3 – Both democrats win the run-off race.
One GA Senate race will definitely go to a runoff. It was a special election splitting almost 50% of the vote between two well-known Republican candidates in a “jungle primary”, the main (unknown) democrat candidate (32.7%), and a passel of random Republican, democrat, independent, & etc. oddballs. Unless the dems pour in enough outside money to buy it (they tried that in a congressional election a few years back with the guy they’re now running for the other senate seat), the appointed incumbent, Kelly Loeffler, should prevail. Republicans usually have better turnout in runoffs.
The normal Senate race may be won by the incumbent Republican, but the 2 to 3% drain off by the Libertarian may force a runoff there, too. Again, traditionally a Republican advantage, but lots of California and Bloomberg type money may come into play.
GA presidential race worries me…it’s razor thin for Trump, and Fulton county (Atlanta) has notoriously incompetent and scandal-ridden public officials and departments. Thankfully a Republican Sec. of State & Governor.
I don’t know why they haven’t yet called the Alaskan Senate race for the Republican.
Yeah, when they announce Georgia as blue in the morning after further dark of night discoveries of Biden-only ballots, the Democrats will come at those Senate Run-offs knowing exactly how to handle it and even better, what didn’t go so well will be polished off.
OK, I’m calling Georgia for Trump by 3500 votes.
Here’s why, although my math is subject to less than precise percentages and counts available at this instant and some necessary suppositions that could, of course, change. Georgia records absentee ballots as they are received, for 3 days after the election, so Friday’s mail could affect things, as could military and provisional ballots and the small % of Libertarian votes.
Current status: Trump 2,448,081 Biden 2,446,814 So a bit over a 1200 vote lead for Trump with supposedly 99% of votes tallied. Most counties are showing 100% in, with only 13 (GA has 159 counties…the most of any state) showing some lesser percentage counted.
All of the larger population counties, including the metro Atlanta ones, are showing 100% reported, with the exception of one moderate-sized one (Muscogee) where Biden is in the lead, but that one shows 96% tallied. Only two other smaller counties have Biden leading their count.
Using the percentage tallied for each incomplete county, and their current Trump/Biden percentage distribution, I estimated the ultimate 100% total vote for each county, and the corresponding additional votes for each candidate.
I estimate an additional 2600 votes for Trump.
With the current 1200 vote lead, that’s Trump by about 3800 in Georgia, plus or minus the military, etc. noted above. I’m going to hedge just a bit and say 3500 total.
Let’s see what happens. I’m still afraid trump is unlikely to prevail overall. NC is likely, but even if he somehow manages Pennsylvania, it would be a miracle to also get NV and AZ.