No matter what happens Tuesday, this is going to be a really bad month. I cannot imagine a scenario where it won’t be.
I wish I could say that I felt confident about my Presidential election prognosticating skills, but my record in recent years has been no better than that of a coin-flipper: I thought Romney would defeat Obama, who had shown himself to be a weak and feckless POTUS (and Mitt would have, if hee were not such a weenie); I was pretty certain we were going to be stuck with Hillary in 2016 too. I assumed that Biden would win in 2020 between Democratic cheating and the pandemic destruction of, well, just about everything, but I also expected Trump to end up as Herbert Hoover: the closeness of the election surprised me.
Pollsters, at this point, should just admit they have no idea what they are doing and give up. My faith in the American public and American political culture tells me that Trump should win, and would win handily if so many impressionable people hadn’t been brainwashed into believing he is Dracula while so many women are apparently more interested in killing unborn babies at will than the Bill of Rights and trivia like that. I still believe, or want to believe, that a Presidential campaign offering someone as obviously incompetent and dishonest as Kamala Harris cannot possibly prevail offering nothing but hatred and fear of the opposing candidate, especially after the debacle of Biden’s term. But maybe Abe Lincoln was wrong after all. If so, we are in very, very serious trouble.
In other more upbeat news, a poll of baseball fans in The Athletic showed that my view in this post is that of the majority as well:
Enough from me: now you’re on. I’ll be checking in periodically to spam the unauthorized comments of Denver Dave, A Friend, and any other banned commenters, so don’t take the bait if they show up.
Ethics Alarms 
Sarcasm alert. With surrogates like Bill Clinton and Mark Cuban how can she lose? Cuban’s remarks about how vapid the women who surrounds Trump are is about as misogynistic as you can get. I’m waiting for KT McFarland his National Security advisor during his term to weigh in. All women should be pissed at that statement except Cassidy Hutchinson.
And, oh, is Hollywood bringing out the propaganda. Last month, a bunch of female “Star Trek” performers gathered together for an online event hosted by Election Denier (but that’s okay because she’s a Democrat!) Stacey Abrams. Now, the Avengers have apparently assembled to push Harris on the public, too.
We have seen violence at the polls from at least one Machete-wielding lunatic and from grown-up men wearing Trump paraphernalia who should know better. The media is spinning what has been called an orchestrated mass voter registration fraud in Pennsylvania and, now, two stenographers have come forward to admit that the White House altered the transcript when President Biden called half the country “garbage”.
Desperation is in the air and, when people are desperate, they make emotion-based decisions that are no good for anyone.
Shades of the White House (especially its lawyers) in Nov/Dec 2020?
https://jonathanturley.org/2024/10/31/the-media-musk-why-the-cancel-campaign-targeting-jeff-bezos-could-backfire/
Interesting take both on Bezos decision not to allow WaPo to endorse Harris for president and the thought that Bezos is not backing down on that decision.
Musk was targeted by this same mob and he fought back. As far as we can tell, he is not only winning but has shifted his support to Trump. Perhaps not what his attackers had in mind?
Could Bezos actually shift in favor of some measure of press impartiality? He did hire someone to run the Post that gave his employees a jolt of reality.
There’s apparently a bunch of Post writers and editors resigning over this. Bezos could make a real statement by who he might hire to replace them.
I am curious what you think will make this month bad. I have my own opinions, but here is what I see and am wondering what I am missing.
First, I predict that we won’t know who the new President will be until December.
Second, I think that the bad depends on who wins and by how much, as well as how much Democratic cheating goes on.
Option A. Kamala wins decisively with minimal cheating (I view this as highly unlikely – less than 1%). People will be cranky, but I don’t think things will be bad.
Option B. Kamala wins weakly with minimal cheating (possible, but still unlikely – 1%). There will be more upset, a lot of court challenges, and people will get mad, but things will still be not horrible.
Option C. Kamala wins with cheating noticeable, but probably not provable in court. I give this a 48%) See Jan 6th again, except this time actually looking like a real insurrection instead of a protest that got out of hand. This will be moderately ugly. Depending on how people respond, we could go to war, but probably, the right will still try the peaceable-ish option (weanyism of much of the nation is probably the determining factor) of trying to wait it out. It won’t be too bad.
Option D. Trump wins the electoral college, but not the popular vote. (48%) Democrats riot and it gets ugly. Approximately 30% of our country goes into collective apoplexy or complete meltdown. Trump gets attacked by at least one more assassin. Whether or not he survives will determine how much the right steps up aggressively. This could lead to civil war. This will be BAD!
Option E. Trump wins the electoral college and the popular vote. (The chances of my selling ocean front property in Wyoming are higher). We see about the same meltdown as Option D, but a smaller percentage of the country does so. This will also be bad.
Am I missing something? It seems to me that if Kamala wins with minimal cheating, we’ll be ok-ish, until she tries to do something that wrecks the country.
Harris winning will be a multi-level disaster. Policies aside, it will validate all of the cheating, lying, lawfare, and media interference with the election and public information, guaranteeing that our democratic system becomes shakier yet, which it cannot afford. This is a certainty. Trump will be persecuted further, and we cannot count on him to have a rational reaction. The likelihood of anti-Democrat violence is high. How she wins doesn’t matter.
If Trump win, but especially if he wins losing the popular vote, coast to coast riots are a certainty.
I firmly disagree. I don’t think there will be riots if Harris wins. If Trump wins, of course the left will go bananas.
It’s already 2016 all over again: Jerry Seinfeld slams his kids’ old school for allowing ‘distressed’ students take day after election off | Daily Mail Online
The same thing should happen to them that happened when Democrats got upset over Lincoln’s win.
I don’t see Trump supporters rioting because they largely include people who have jobs and people who own businesses. They have jobs to go to, and why would they want to destroy the businesses they own and from which they derive their livelihoods?
It does not take all, or eve most, people to riot
It only takes one.
The Axis started right on time today trying to offset the damage from SloJoe’s “garbage” comment.
I was in the car early and had the local news/talk/advice, etc. station on the radio when someone on a national news segment blurb claimed that Trump had literally threatened Liz Cheney and called for her to be shot in the face.
When I got back home and could check it out, similar variations of this description of Trump’s “violent rhetoric” were (and are) up on the usual sites, like Politico, etc. Digging a bit deeper uncovered that Trump had actually called Liz a “radical war hawk” and suggested that she might feel differently if she were the one holding a rifle and facing guns in combat.
Sigh
Here is one reason people who feel that the 2020 election was stolen feel the way that they do.
They have been told that the 2016 election was stolen by a few hundred thousand dollars’ worth of Facebook ads bought by the Russians®™ acting in concert and participation with Donald J. Trump.
The federal law enforcement and intelligence establishments gave the illusion of credibility to 2016 election trutherism.
Both the Clinton campaign and Kevin Clinesmith admitted to committing crimes to further 2016 election trutherism.
In 2018, two-thirds of Democratic voters felt that the Russians®™ actually changed the vote totals.
Think about it.
If this side was willing to violate campaign finance laws and laws against forgery on a delegitimization campaign against Trump, what wouldn’t they do to win the 2020 election?
I don’t know how solid the data behind this is, but the IDF is claiming the notion that the majority of Palestinians support Hamas is false:
https://x.com/SilverVVulpes/status/1831977072925065533
I don’t expect this to change how the war is prosecuted, but if true, I hope it means a better post-war situation.
My father said that when the Allies marched into Germany, there were no Germans who said they supported Hitler.
But that was after they lost. When the data is gathered might make a difference.
OK, this must be some kind of simulation. A judge named Richy Rich signed a warrant for a squirrel. Over 10 agents descended on the squirrel’s home, and in a 5 hour raid, killed a squirrel with 3 million internet followers and questioned the owners including investigating their immigration status. What did the squirrel do? Did he endorse Trump or something? Was this to distract the public’s attention from the media’s ridiculous actions lately to try to prop up Harris?