polls

The Wedgewood Polls Scam: Is Anybody Shocked? Why?

/ Jack Marshall / 7 Comments

For the second time this year (EA covered the Median Strategies fake polls here) as the contentious mid-terms approached, a polling organization whose “blue wave” numbers the news media had swallowed hook, line and sinker revealed itself to be a sham. This week, after the polling website FiftyPlusOne began asking questions, Wedgewood Polls confessed that its polling data was made up. The phony poll numbers had been publicized and used in state race analyses by all the polling aggregators, including such alleged authorities as Nate Silver and The New York Times. Wedgewood now claims that it was all a social science experiment.

Right. Nice try: here is the public statement by these scumbags:

The earlier fake polling company made the same claim that it had engaged in a “short-term social experiment examining how purported polling information could enter and spread through the political information ecosystem without independent verification.”

Pages: 1 2

Ethics Verdict: The Public Is Too Stupid and Ignorant For A Republic To Function

/ Jack Marshall / 11 Comments
Great. Now what?

And those responsible?

  • Parents
  • The education system
  • Teachers
  • The news media
  • Political parties, politicians and candidates, and
  • The lazy, incurious, complacent public itself.

More than a third of U.S. adults (35%) can’t name all three branches of the government. The 2026 Annenberg Constitution Day Civics Survey from the Annenberg Public Policy Center (APPC) at the Annenberg School for Communication at the University of Pennsylvania surveyed a nationally representative sample of 1,034 U.S. adults from August 6 to 9. Only 65% can name the executive, legislative, and judicial branches. The results of that poll were 70% in 2025 and 65% in 2024.

Parents have an obligation to teach such basic civics, if they know it themselves. That any high school lets a student graduate without being able to name the three branches of government is disgusting and constitutes the negligent killing of democracy. I wonder how many teachers are in the 35%? I probably will be happier if I don’t find out.

Other news in the Annenberg poll are ominous but have fewer real consequences. When asked in to name the specific rights protected by the First Amendment, 73% cited Freedom of Speech, less than the 79% who got it right in 2025. Under one-half (43%) could name Freedom of Religion (because, I surmise, less than half care much about religion in today’s America), fewer than one-third (31%) named Freedom of Assembly and, surprisingly at least to me, only 29% named Freedom of the Press (29%). Almost nobody, just 12%, remembered the right to petition the government. In all, only 9% of respondents could correctly name all five rights in the First Amendment, while 24% could name none of them. A similar number, 25% thought the Right to Bear Arms, the Second Amendment, was part of the First.

You know. Morons.

The poll helps explain the infuriating campaign ads I have been seeing during the telecasts of Red Sox games this month. Democratic House member Chris Pappas (Mass.) is the most flagrant villain, telling two-digit IQ voters that he will “fight I.C.E” (Congress can’t fight I.C.E., which is an Executive Branch agency) and “block abortion bans.” If there are abortion bans they are at the state level, so Congress has no say. Nobody has seriously proposed an abortion ban at the national level, which would probably require a constitutional amendment, and that’s not happening.

“Ignorance is costly,” said Kathleen Hall Jamieson, director emerita of the Annenberg Public Policy Center. “You can’t protect and cherish rights that you don’t know you have.”

Bingo. And that’s exactly why aspiring totalitarians like the state of U.S. civic competence just the way it is.

CNN’s Outright “It Isn’t What It Is” Propaganda To Support The Democratic Party’s “Affordablity” Scam (Or “Nah, There’s No Mainstream Media Bias”)

/ Jack Marshall / 8 Comments

Hundreds of people sent it in, but nobody sent it to Ethics Alarms. Come one, you guys, I’m depending on you!

That clip above, in which CNN’s supposed stat guru Harry Enten deliberately (or impossibly incompetently) misinterprets a Fox News poll about what proportion of Americans think prices are higher than a year ago for various consumer products as showing how much prices have risen for those products. Nobody in the segment pointed the error out. Nobody screamed from off-camera. There has been no CNN correction or retraction.

Enten, in his usual hyperactive mode, said, “I mean, your costs are up vs a year ago!” and begins underlining to the products and reads the percentages aloud, implying costs are up by that much. Then he says, “The bottom line is this: Americans feel prices are rising in every single part of their lives”—implying that they “feel” it because just look at how much those prices are rising!—“rising ever higher and they just don’t feel like, Kate Balduan, that they can catch a break.” Well, how could they? Just look at those percentages!

Are Americans so clueless that they would believe this nonsense? Apparently the Democratic Party, “the resistance” and the news media (“the Axis of Unethical Conduct” ) think so, or they wouldn’t try to get away with it every day, all over the news media. The Biden administration goofs its way into a period of 9% inflation, prices soar, the rate of inflation comes down dramatically in the Trump Administration but the same party responsible for raising the prices uses the inevitable fact that they aren’t coming down (prices as a whole never come down, they just go up more slowly) as proof that the current administration is failing. Yes, Trump shares some blame for this by saying that he would bring prices down during his campaign. He was being his usual careless talk self and meant (I guess) that he would bring some prices down, but as usual his habitual hyperbole got him into trouble. That error does not excuse lies like Enten’s, however.

If CNN was a real practitioner of journalism, which it is not (I don’t think there is a single trustworthy news organization anywhere today), Enten would have used the Fox News poll the way it was explained on Fox: to show the large gap between the reality of U.S. prices and the public perception of it, in part because of Axis lies. To take one obvious example, gasoline is down from a year ago and anyone who drives a car knows it. But Enten implied that the cost of gas is up “54%”!

Continue reading →

Ethics Quote of the Month: Yeah, It’s Bill Maher, Much As It Pains Me To Admit It

/ Jack Marshall / 1 Comment

“If the thought leaders in the Democratic Party keep encouraging and not rebuking the idea that America is cringe and the people who run Gaza are great,” he warned, “the Democrats are doomed.”

—HBO’s “clown nose on/clown nose off” comic Bill Maher on his weekly political commentary and discussion show “Real Time.”

I have made it clear in the past few months that I do not take professional asshole Bill Maher’s recent criticism of progressives and the Democratic Party to be sincere or particularly admirable. He is obviously making self-serving calculations regarding where his own best interests lie, and the comic is smart enough (not as smart as he thinks he is, but smart enough) to recognize a declining brand when he sees one. Nevertheless, we should always try to judge a message independently of a flawed messenger.

Maher is right. Last month a Harvard poll found that only 24% of young Democrats said they were proud of being American compared to a 76% of young Republicans. (I find it alarming that a quarter of young Republicans aren’t proud of the U.S.). The poll surveyed 2,096 Americans from 18 to 29 years old nationally, and among Democrat respondents, an amazing 54% said they are embarrassed to be Americans while 21% said they were neither proud not embarrassed. With Republicans, it was 8% embarrassed and 16% neither proud nor embarrassed

Yeah, yeah, “polls” and “Harvard.” Still.

In addition to his Quote of the Month, Maher told his audience after citing the results,

“Seriously, this is a serious problem for Democrats,” Maher said during his Friday monologue. “Less than 1 in 4 Democrats under 30 say they’re proud to be an American. 54% say they’re embarrassed by it. Embarrassed? Like America is your mom picking you up at school? You’re embarrassed to be an American? Well guess what — the feeling’s mutual, because you have no perspective. Is America perfect? No, of course not. No country is. But the US is leagues ahead of the rest of the world on most of the progressive issues that are important to young people.  America has 14-million women-owned businesses. Seventeen percent of black women are starting businesses, which is faster than white women or white men. Gay Americans are free to marry and 49% of them own property. Yes, in America gays buy buildings. In other places, they get thrown off them….And we proudly live in a land where every TV commercial features a mix-raced couple, including the ones where it makes no sense. Mom’s black, dad’s white, and the kid’s Asian.”

Well, I’m embarrassed by that last part, but Bill’s over-all analysis is valid.

It shouldn’t be too much of a surprise that the Children of the Left hate America, because for decades our education system, news media-celebrated activists and elected leaders have been assiduously indoctrinating children from kindergarten through college to believe that the U.S. is defined by slavery, racism, colonialism, bigotry, murder, unjust wars and robber barons. And for much of that period, Bill Maher and his ilk have been cheering the anti-Americanism on. But New Bill is absolutely correct about the Democrats committing cultural suicide and trying to lead the public off the cliff with them.

Whether he means it or not.

Is There Any Way To Know If The Public Is Turning Against Trump As the Axis Claims?

/ Jack Marshall / 6 Comments

So far, I can’t find any. The Axis news media has made it clear that it is still determined to spin everything to undermine this President’s agenda to the point of flat-out deceit and misrepresentation. (I saw several other news platforms this morning claiming that Trump had said that he “didn’t know” if he would uphold the Constitution, a Big Lie, as I explained here.) In addition to polls being both incompetent and dishonest for at least a decade, there is an unforgivable lack of context in interpreting them, as I noted in this post.

Meanwhile, from the Right, I am reading claims that the polls showing Trump voter remorse are simply fake. Charlie Martin, one of the more rational pundits at PJ Media, writes in part,

…recent focus groups clearly demonstrate that Trump voters aren’t experiencing an ounce of buyer’s remorse. The mainstream media can push their fake polls and doomsday economic forecasts all they want—Trump’s base isn’t budging.

During a revealing segment on Fox News, Sean Hannity highlighted what the liberal media doesn’t want you to see: a focus group conducted by CNN’s Van Jones showing unwavering support for President Trump. Pollster Robert Cahaly, the founder of Trafalgar Group, exposed the left’s transparent strategy, explaining how they’re trying to drive a wedge between Trump and congressional Republicans.

“People are not regretting voting for Donald Trump. And then to watch their pollster say, ‘Yeah, if the election were held today, Trump would still wipe the floor with Kamala Harris,’ or probably any other Democrat, for that matter,” Hannity pointed out. “Why are they doing that? Are they trying to divide Trump with congressional Republicans and senators to stymie his agenda?”

“That’s exactly why they’re doing it,” Cahaly revealed. “They realize that Washington is full of political animals. And if they can convince the people in Congress that Trump is somehow becoming more toxic, then they can damage his agenda.”

The playbook is painfully obvious. The same pollsters who spectacularly failed to predict Trump’s electoral success are now doubling down on their flawed methodology. 

Well, is that fair? If polling can be distorted by rigged group selection, focus groups and “man-in-the-street” interviews are even more unreliable. I’m sorry to have to say it (all right, no I’m not), but Sean Hannity is not exactly a paradigm of objectivity. The theory that the Axis would use rigged polls as a “by any mean possible” weapon to stop Orange Hitler makes sense based on past experience, but that isn’t the same as evidence.

In a democracy, having a sense of what the public is thinking is important. It doesn’t mean that elected officials should rush to follow public opinion whatever it may be, since a) the public is substantially emotional, ignorant, selfish and/or stupid, which is why we have a republic rather than a pure democracy, b) they are elected officials theoretically because they are more reliable and trustworthy than the hoi pollois, and c) public opinion is constantly being warped by bad actors, also known as “journalists.”

But is it too much to ask that some trustworthy, unbiased, competent organization can provide a reliable snapshot of what the public’s view of this administration’s epic first three months is? Apparently, yes, it is too much to ask. All we are left with is confirmation bias.

I resent it.

The YouGov. Poll: Maybe Americans Are Just Too Stupid and Unethical For Democracy to Survive After All…

/ Jack Marshall / 13 Comments

All research indicates that the majority of Americans, not having the IQ’s of Pet Rocks, recognize that our bloated government is corrupt, inept and wasteful. Pew Research polling concluded that 56% of Americans felt that way last year. “Nearly 2/3 of Americans fear that our government is run by corrupt officials, stated another survey. In January, A.P.-NORC researchers found that 70% of Americans believe corruption in the federal government is a serious problem.

Despite these beliefs, only 39 % of Americans polled gave DOGE a “favorable” rating in the latest The Economist/YouGov poll, with”unfavorable” at 36%, and the human slugs who chose “don’t know” came in at a whopping 25%. Another poll this month found only 49% approving DOGE’s cost-cutting efforts.

Continue reading →

Why Current Presidential Polls Are Worthless, And Further Observations On The 2024 Election…

/ Jack Marshall / 12 Comments


Here’s the title of Nate Cohn’s essay in the New York Times: “How One Polling Decision Is Leading to Two Distinct Stories of the Election: A methodological choice has created divergent paths of polling results. Is this election more like 2020 or 2022?”(That’s a gift link.)

Duh. The election isn’t “like” 2022 or 2020, and obviously so. If anything, the election is more like 2016, except that Trump has already been President for four mostly successful years, at least theoretically proving that he can do the job, and Hillary Clinton, as certifiably awful as she is, still was more qualified and substantive that the ridiculous Kamala Harris.

Apparently pollsters are relying heavily on so-called “recall vote” weighing, in which how a voter cast a ballot in the last election gives valid data about how he or she will vote in 2024. First, 2022 was a mid-term election, and the dynamics were completely different from a Presidential race. Indeed, everything is completely different from this Presidential election.

Using the last Presidential election as some kind of guide to figuring out this one using Trump 2020 as a comparison to Trump 2024 is also invalid. The election during the pandemic lockdown was sui generis. Trump was the incumbent stuck with miserable conditions thanks to events outside his control, but still: voters tend to blame incumbents. Trump is in 2020 Biden’s position now as the one offering a change from a rotten situation, and Harris, well, who knows what she is, or will be regarded as once enough voters get their heads out of anatomically impossible places and pay attention? That is, if they ever do.

Cohn writes at the end, “A near repeat of the last presidential election is certainly a plausible outcome. In today’s polarized era, who could possibly be surprised by a repeat in Mr. Trump’s third presidential run? If it’s a near repeat, the polls weighted by recall vote won’t just have an excellent night themselves, but they might also spare the entire industry another four years of misery.”

Wait, a repeat of what? A Trump loss to Biden? No, that can’t be it. Trump doing better than the polls? If that happens, Trump wins, and if Trump wins, how could 2024 be a repeat of an election that Trump lost? The election being close? Do we need polls to guess that?

Continue reading →

What Does THIS Poll Tell You?

/ Jack Marshall / 24 Comments

Often astute by quirky ex-law prof/blogger Ann Althouse presented readers with a poll this morning asking who she should vote for and whom they thought she would vote for. Althouse is a denizen of Madison, Wisconsin, and believed to be a moderate liberal who typically votes for Democrats. A long-time blogger whose readers are swelled by the ranks of former students, she has somehow accumulated a group of mostly conservative commenters. They also tend to be knowledgeable, analytical and articulate

The results of the poll are overwhelming enough to suggest some accuracy, at least in regard to the group polled. 79% said that Althouse “should vote for Trump.” Only 4% voted that Ann should vote for Harris. The rest opined that she will vote for no one.

What’s going on here?

ABC Provides A Fake News Classic!

/ Jack Marshall / 18 Comments

“Nah, there’s no mainstream media bias!” I find this stunt by ABC News today as astounding as it is unforgivable.

The Axis, as I noted yesterday, is shaken to its core by polling data that seems to show that Kamala Harris’s efforts to hide, lie, cackle and flip-flop her way to the White House is no longer working despite the news media’s intense assistance. Meanwhile, Nate Silver posted today that his analytical model gives Trump a 53.4% chance of winning Wisconsin, 54.9% in Michigan, 60.8% in Nevada, and a 64.9% chance of winning Pennsylvania, giving Trump a likely 312 votes in the Electoral College.

So ABC, determined to rescue their party’s flagging spirits, published a story headlined, “Harris support rises among some likely voters: POLL.” “As previously reported, Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump by a slight 4 percentage points, 50-46%, among all adults and registered voters alike, and by 6 points, 52-46%, among likely voters in the latest ABC News/Ipsos poll. While those numbers are virtually identical, closer assessment shows movement to Harris in some groups when comparing all adults with likely voters — notably, those younger than 40, younger women in particular and Black people,” this trusted name in journalism announced.

Continue reading →

Ethics Alarms Is Ready To Predict the Winner of the 2024 Election…

/ Jack Marshall / 24 Comments

And it is...Abraham Lincoln!

It’s just one poll, but it’s a New York Times poll, and if any left-leaning, biased polling result is likely to try to bury bad news for the Democrats, it’s this one. The New York Times/Siena national poll was released this morning, and showed Donald Trump starting to regain the edge he had before Joe Biden was forced out and the news media joined the Democrats in a “She Isn’t What She Is” campaign of excitement, joy, and virtually no substance whatsoever.

Trump now leads Kamala Harris nationally among likely voters by a 48–47 margin, and Trump hasn’t received as much as 48% at the ballot box yet, not in 2016 or 2020. Though Newsbuster’s analysis shows Harris getting over 80% positive press coverage in this period (for doing nothing but repeating boilerplate, non-substantive speeches off teleprompters and avoiding any one-on-one interviews with even friendly journalists), and though she has reversed many of her most radical positions (more on that in a second) while saying that “her values haven’t changed,” whatever that means, “the ruse isn’t working,” as Jeff Blehar says at the Never Trump National Review:

Continue reading →