“That is ridiculous. The whole thing is patently ridiculous. It’s baseball–a pastime involving a lot of chance. If [Ben] Zobrist’s ball is three inches farther off the line, I’m on the hot seat for a failed five-year plan.”
—-Theo Epstein, president of the Major League Baseball’s 2016 World Champion Chicago Cubs, upon learning that Fortune Magazine had chosen him #1 among “The World’s Greatest Leaders” in a click-bait list released last week.
Thank-you, Theo, for explaining moral luck and the perils of consequentialism to the public. When it came down to the final innings of Game 7 in last year’s World Series, it looked for a while like Cubs manager Joe Maddon was about to blow the chance to win an elusive title after over a century of frustration by keeping his clearly gassed closer on the game. That his risky decision didn’t make Maddon a goat for the ages and Epstein one more name in the long list of Cubs saviors was pure moral luck—the element of chance that often distinguished heroes from villains. winners from losers and geniuses from fools in the public’s mind—and gross consequentialism, judging decisions by their uncontrollable results rather than their objectively judged wisdom and ethics at the time they were made.
If the Cleveland Indians had won that crucial game in extra-inning, no matter how, Epstein might have made Fortune’s list (I doubt it), but he would have been nowhere near the top.
I won’t blame Epstein for not saying so, but he’s been a dubious leader in the past. He came to the Cubs announcing his “five year plan” to finally break the “Billy Goat curse” after abruptly resigning as General Manager of the Boston Red Sox in 2011, following the debacle of that team’s September collapse that saw it blow a large lead to miss the play-offs on the final day of the regular season. (Ironically, Terry Francona, the manager of the Cleveland Indians team Epstein’s Cubs defeated in last year’s Series, was Epstein’s manager that captained Boston onto the rocks.) It was three ill-considered long term contracts—yes, moral luck again—Theo had committed to that led to the collapse, and finding some way out of them was a daunting challenge on which the future of the Boston team depended. Rather than stay and address the consequences of his own miscalculations, his responsibility as a leader, Epstein quit with a year remaining on his five year contract to take a richer deal and a bigger job with the desperate Cubs.
Still, Epstein had the integrity and modesty to reject Fortune’s unjustified assessment, and the wisdom to explain why it was unjustified. While we will always judge leaders on results—well, everyone but Robert E. Lee and Barack Obama—-whether their leadership is successful of not is often beyond their control.
Ethics Alarms 
I casually observed to a Cubs’ fan that the Indians would have won the World Series last year if the Indians had not lost two of their three best starting pitchers near the end of the season. You would have thought I had insulted Jesus.
If Theo is such a great leader, I wonder what he is going to do about the bullpen this year. It was a fluke that he was able to acquire a closer like Chapman at the trade deadline last year. Or was it? Do the Cubs have such a talent stockpile that they can use it yearly to fill gaps on their roster?
I would worry more about the starting rotation, which is not young, and was amazingly injury free last year. Wade Davis is a capable closer, and though he’s 42+, Uehara had been spectacular since 2013. Bullpens are unpredictable, but Theo has a good one.
Also, the Tribe might have won the Series if it hadn’t rained!
This! That game was starting to go Cleveland’s way until rain stopped it!
Good points all. I’m a Pirates’ fan. Any encouraging words for me beyond praise for the fantastic outfield?
“Any encouraging words for me beyond praise for the fantastic outfield?”
Yes: WIN IT ALL, ASTROS!
(Seriously, Tom, if you check history, you will see that those indeed are encouraging words. [chuckling])
You’ll have to give me a little more info. The only connection that comes to my mind is Phil Garner.
I am talking about Astros history: 55 seasons in existence, winning their way to a grand total of ONE World Series. Then: swept. Compare and contrast that history with that of other teams that came into existence the same year (or thereabouts – I am too old to remember every detail) – Mets and Angels, for two examples. Of course you would remember Phil Garner; I remember him too. He did well with both the Pirates and Astros.
If the Pirates make it to the World Series this year, and if they have to face the Astros, then I believe odds are in favor of the Pirates to win.
As of 2017, the worst record in terms of Championships ever. Prospects look good going forward, however.
If they keep winning like they did last night (walk-off, come-from-behind 3-r homer), the Astros will have a very good chance of making the playoffs.
Isn’t it a helluva lot more fun to talk about baseball and what really coulda/shoulda happened than to argue politics in the Age of Trump?
“National pastime” is the correct sobriquet.
Sobriquet? Which word-power course did you take?
Trump is the most interesting politician in decades.
It has always been more interesting to talk about baseball than about anything else.
Al, I know what ‘sobriquet’ means. Feel free to continue to use it and any other words in your vocabulary. There are many on-line dictionaries for those with smaller vocabularies.
Did you oversleep that humor class the day they discussed “tongue in cheek”?
Theo Epstein is the son of my college classmate, Leslie Epstein, a writer. If Les is still alive 57 years after graduation, he’d be happy to give you the definition of “sobriquet.”
I am sure he would explain “tongue in cheek” as well.