I’m Guessing an 85% Chance That The 2022 Election Results Will Lead To Serious And Widespread Civil Unrest

Why? Because six unethical years of Big Lies, fearmongering and deliberately divisive tactics have consequences.

There is one very unlikely scenario—but still possible—that would probably tamp down the threat of violence. That would be if the GOP narrowly wins control of the House but fails to improve its standing in the Senate, and none of the close Senate contests Republicans lose involve dubious vote-counting and suspicious shenanigans. This is, realistically, the best Democrats can hope for. Progressives won’t riot over such a result unless they have completely lost their collective mind. Will conservatives of the January 6 sub-species get violent over the same disappointing outcome? I don’t think so, but we’re talking about idiots now. Who knows?

And that’s the positive 15%. Yes, I’m adopting 538’s cowardly technique: state all predictions as percentages, so when your analysis is proven dead wrong, you can say, “I never said what was going to happen! I just gave the probabilities! This means that it doesn’t matter what splits you use: you can claim any result made you “right.”

In what appears at this moment to be the overwhelmingly most likely outcome, the Republicans will sweep to substantial majorities in the House and Senate as well as taking down several Democratic governors. I have no doubt that there will be riots across the country. The entire Democratic message has been that such a result will “end the democracy,” and that the GOP is prepared to take away voting rights, gay marriage, birth control, Social Security and Medicare, all while advancing “white supremacy” and never permitting another election to put them out of office. It has been the most divisive, dangerous and irresponsible political campaign at least since the Civil War. The Democratic Party and its media made this election a virtual ticking bomb, and primed its constituency with unforgivable hysteria and hyperbole.

The other scenario that will lead to civil unrest is if the Republicans somehow do not take over either House of Congress. There is no way that most Republicans will believe such a result did not arise from cheating, not after the 2020 election, not after the polls all predicted a GOP “red wave,” not with stories like…

More than 1,000 residents in metro Atlanta, Georgia, never received their requested absentee ballots, city officials say. Cobb County Elections officials investigated and discovered that 1,046 requested absentee ballots were never mailedElections and Registrations Director Janine Eveler attributed the situation to human error, with new staff not following procedures to ensure ballots were mailed.

Most Republicans don’t think it’s “baseless” to believe the 2020 election was stolen, and the anticipation of achieving justice at the polls is keen. The Left created this mass distrust of elections by refusing to deal honestly with the questions the last cycle created. Congress should have launched a bi-partisan investigation of the last election; instead, it delivered a partisan witch hunt to criminalize politics and use the January 6 riot at the Capitol as standing accusation against Republicans in general and Donald Trump in particular. Prescient Biden should have organized a bi-partisan statement from all the former Presidents—Trump, Obama, Bush and Carter—to affirm the core principle of democracy to accept the results of elections, and never to resort to violence. Having already stated, however, that Republicans were aspiring fascist hostile to democracy, he couldn’t do that even if he was inclined to.

Regular readers here know that I believe most organized protests are unethical, so you can imagine what I think of riots. I hope the better instincts of Americans prevail along with metaphorically cool heads, but the Left has been creating this environment by encouraging hate, anger and distrust for years, escalating dramatically in recent weeks in its desperation to avoid the consequences of their arrogance and incompetence.

I will be thrilled if my pessimistic forecast is wrong. I’m saying there’s a 15% chance, but honestly, I don’t think its even that much.

17 thoughts on “I’m Guessing an 85% Chance That The 2022 Election Results Will Lead To Serious And Widespread Civil Unrest

  1. “Progressives won’t riot over such a result unless they have completely lost their collective mind.”

    You give them more credit than I do. Traditional Democrats won’t riot. They are good people, honest people, people who love the United States. They don’t really grasp how bad the far left of their party has gotten.

    I’m glad I work at home. I will be sheltering in place on Wednesday.

    I hope I’m wrong.

  2. I have yet to hear a story about any city taking the precautions of boarding up store fronts in anticipation of riots, but I haven’t been looking for such stories.
    That not all results will be known until after Election Day may be a blessing in disguise.
    I do agree that Democrats are more than five times as likely to riot than Republicans.

  3. I’d like to believe that if people thought there would be riots on Wednesday and they’d be doing something about it. No one seems to be doing anything. I hope that you are wrong about the reaction and this entire nation is not caught flat-footed. The wounds of 2020 have not healed yet, and if the left tries to tear them open again, the response from the right is going to be bad.

    • Whoee! Jack, I hope you’ve gone to the dark side for a moment here. I can’t see Maxine Watters and Aunt Nan and The Senator from Wall Street inviting riots. But you never know. I don’t think anyone’s buying the “democracy is on the ballot” and “our democracy is at risk” BS. Of course, I was wrong and thought the wailing and gnashing of teeth we saw on air when Trump won would subside in due course. Boy, was I wrong about that. It’s as strong as ever six years on!

      • I’ve spoken to several previously sane in the last 48 hours who told me they were “terrified” that Republicans would “end democracy” by refusing to follow the results of any election they lost. And they seem to think Trump’s on the ballot. They really believe this.

        • How quickly they forget. Do they not realize they pretty much won in 2020? Did Republicans ‘end democracy’ because they lost? And no, I don’t accept the argument that we tried — the January 6 riot was just that, a riot.

          Or are they really saying that the Democrats will end democracy if they lose? Projecting again.

          Honestly it is somewhat depressing to think that Trump may be on the ballot in 2024, but he is not this year. I’ve seen the sample ballot from our precinct — I promise you his name is nowhere on it.

          If he is on the ballot in 2024, I’m pretty sure I will have to vote for him, but I really don’t think that is the best choice for the country. Maybe if the Democrats get a licking this week and Biden announces he’s not going to run — maybe Trump will refrain.

        • Jack,

          I don’t know how many conservatives are quietly muttering to themselves about the potential for more shenanigans this election, but some are indeed wondering if it will be time to make a call to arms if 1) the Democrats keep the House and Senate and 2) there is again lots of smoke that seems to obfuscate what is transpiring while votes are being tallied. Sarah Hoyt wrote the following recently, which I had not actually considered (but should have heard at some point in the last two years):

          No one, absolutely no one would run the campaign Joe Biden ran unless they had everything pre-sewn-up with fraud so extraordinary that they could not have had more than say 10% of votes and yet “won.” It was a Potemkin campaign, designed to lend credibility to a fraudulent win. You could see it coming for months before hand. Or you could if you have some experience with how the left operates.

          It is the measure of how badly they lost that even with that extraordinary network of fraud in place they had to fraud at the last minute, desperately and in full view…

          I’m not saying she’s right, or that I ascribe to her viewpoint (which feels a bit further right than I consider myself, which is already very right…), but there are many conservatives who are smoldering still over 2020, and who will undoubtedly decide that the whole process is irreparably broken if 2022 follows in the footsteps of 2020. History shows what happens when a large body of people feel completely disenfranchised.

          Will there be riots if the Republicans take office? I would not assume otherwise. The TIME magazine expose spoke of how they had numerous groups poised to “demonstrate” if the election seems to be turning against the Left, but as the results started to show that Trump might be defeated, they called the demonstrations off. It is as if the Left happens to have an organization of professional demonstrators that they can call up at a moment’s notice if need be. If the network is still fully functional, there doesn’t need to be overt indications that riots are imminent. They will somehow burst out “spontaneously” when it becomes clear the Republicans are taking control of the Senate. Maybe beforehand.

          But if the Left somehow keeps control of the House and Senate after all this expectation of a red wave, possibly even a red tsunami, what response will there be from the Right? Hoyt continues by saying later on,

          They don’t understand us at all. Violence for them is a knob which they twist up and down for effect (and usually via astroturfing and paying psychotics to scare the normies.) The don’t understand ours is a switch. If it turns on we can’t easily turn it off. Which is why we’re being slow and deliberate. The left meanwhile, like all primitives, mistakes restraint for weakness.

          In my personal viewpoint, the leaders of the Republican party are a bunch of weenies, and they’ll moan and wring hands and tut-tut if the Left shows more shenanigans on Tuesday. I think the many conservatives will quietly stock up, and see if they can’t manage one last time to turn the tide of one-party rule in 2024, but their patience will only extend that far. But it is possible that after 2020, which was a slap in the face after fly-over country delivered its stinging rebuke to the Obama years in 2016, that patience has been exhausted and 2022 is the last stand.

          I think the Left may be correct in worrying about right-wing violence, because they may sense that the Right is not going to accept another smoke-and-mirrors election. The real question is whether the Left learned its lessons from 2020, or if they will double down.

            • I guess I’ve taken talk of post-election violence as a threat of same by the left. I.e., “If you Republicans have the gall to win this election, we, the righteous left, will burn this country down.”

              • I would not discount the possibility of right wing violence. The right is far less prone to rioting, but there is a dangerous undercurrent running quietly under the surface amongst many on the right. Prepping has exploded. People are buying up acres in the country and caches of nonperishable food. Many people are actively getting ready for dealing with the fallout of a civil war. This isn’t normal.

                People are angry. Very angry. It would be wise to pay attention that anger.

                • Right now, we live in an apartment on the edge of a city, but our retirement home (built last year) is nearly eighty miles away, in a rural setting in a county that is roughly ninety percent conservative. We did that intentionally.

                  And while Iowa is still a state full of sensible people among a few crazies, my wife and I assume nothing. We put our trust in the Lord, in our right to leave the area quickly, and in our right to legally arm ourselves.

  4. I like this headline on PJ Media:

    “CNN’s Daniel Dale Throws Biden Under the Bus and Chuck Todd Runs Him Over”

    Fact checking Biden? Hmmm. A quote from the story:

    “There is some accidental journalisming going on here.”

  5. They claim democracy is in danger but the election results are what they are because the majority have voted democratically. What they really mean when they warn of the demise of democracy is the end of their time in power, which to them should be acquired and held by any means necessary. I see no other way to remedy this evil but through violence, because they won’t have it any other way.

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