Why? Because six unethical years of Big Lies, fearmongering and deliberately divisive tactics have consequences.
There is one very unlikely scenario—but still possible—that would probably tamp down the threat of violence. That would be if the GOP narrowly wins control of the House but fails to improve its standing in the Senate, and none of the close Senate contests Republicans lose involve dubious vote-counting and suspicious shenanigans. This is, realistically, the best Democrats can hope for. Progressives won’t riot over such a result unless they have completely lost their collective mind. Will conservatives of the January 6 sub-species get violent over the same disappointing outcome? I don’t think so, but we’re talking about idiots now. Who knows?
And that’s the positive 15%. Yes, I’m adopting 538’s cowardly technique: state all predictions as percentages, so when your analysis is proven dead wrong, you can say, “I never said what was going to happen! I just gave the probabilities! This means that it doesn’t matter what splits you use: you can claim any result made you “right.”
In what appears at this moment to be the overwhelmingly most likely outcome, the Republicans will sweep to substantial majorities in the House and Senate as well as taking down several Democratic governors. I have no doubt that there will be riots across the country. The entire Democratic message has been that such a result will “end the democracy,” and that the GOP is prepared to take away voting rights, gay marriage, birth control, Social Security and Medicare, all while advancing “white supremacy” and never permitting another election to put them out of office. It has been the most divisive, dangerous and irresponsible political campaign at least since the Civil War. The Democratic Party and its media made this election a virtual ticking bomb, and primed its constituency with unforgivable hysteria and hyperbole.
The other scenario that will lead to civil unrest is if the Republicans somehow do not take over either House of Congress. There is no way that most Republicans will believe such a result did not arise from cheating, not after the 2020 election, not after the polls all predicted a GOP “red wave,” not with stories like…
More than 1,000 residents in metro Atlanta, Georgia, never received their requested absentee ballots, city officials say. Cobb County Elections officials investigated and discovered that 1,046 requested absentee ballots were never mailed. Elections and Registrations Director Janine Eveler attributed the situation to human error, with new staff not following procedures to ensure ballots were mailed.
Most Republicans don’t think it’s “baseless” to believe the 2020 election was stolen, and the anticipation of achieving justice at the polls is keen. The Left created this mass distrust of elections by refusing to deal honestly with the questions the last cycle created. Congress should have launched a bi-partisan investigation of the last election; instead, it delivered a partisan witch hunt to criminalize politics and use the January 6 riot at the Capitol as standing accusation against Republicans in general and Donald Trump in particular. Prescient Biden should have organized a bi-partisan statement from all the former Presidents—Trump, Obama, Bush and Carter—to affirm the core principle of democracy to accept the results of elections, and never to resort to violence. Having already stated, however, that Republicans were aspiring fascist hostile to democracy, he couldn’t do that even if he was inclined to.
Regular readers here know that I believe most organized protests are unethical, so you can imagine what I think of riots. I hope the better instincts of Americans prevail along with metaphorically cool heads, but the Left has been creating this environment by encouraging hate, anger and distrust for years, escalating dramatically in recent weeks in its desperation to avoid the consequences of their arrogance and incompetence.
I will be thrilled if my pessimistic forecast is wrong. I’m saying there’s a 15% chance, but honestly, I don’t think its even that much.