For the second time this year (EA covered the Median Strategies fake polls here) as the contentious mid-terms approached, a polling organization whose “blue wave” numbers the news media had swallowed hook, line and sinker revealed itself to be a sham. This week, after the polling website FiftyPlusOne began asking questions, Wedgewood Polls confessed that its polling data was made up. The phony poll numbers had been publicized and used in state race analyses by all the polling aggregators, including such alleged authorities as Nate Silver and The New York Times. Wedgewood now claims that it was all a social science experiment.
Right. Nice try: here is the public statement by these scumbags:
The earlier fake polling company made the same claim that it had engaged in a “short-term social experiment examining how purported polling information could enter and spread through the political information ecosystem without independent verification.”
As far as I’m concerned; anyone that engages in publishing false polling results regarding any election, anywhere in the USA should be immediately charged with a felony of willful election fraud, election tampering, or something equivalent. These people should be thrown in jail for not less than 10 years and maybe up to 20 years for intentionally fucking with our elections.
It would be a very interesting first amendment question if that could be done. Lying in commercial speech is not protected, it is considered fraud. At the other extreme is political speech, considered the most protected. Making lying in political speech would be rather problematic.
After all, more than half the country thinks that everything Trump says is a lie. That would hand ammunition to leftist places like NY another way to lock up political opponents, true or not. I vote to not give them that power.
I don’t disagree with your overall position that it is election interference. As Matthew B points, there is a First Amendment problem with prosecution, though. Politicians are, by definition, public persons, which means you have to show actual malice to make a defamation claim against the polling entities. You might get there with the Dishonest Waiter phenomenon but it would be hard to survive a First Amendment challenge.
jvb
As you noted, the whole “it was an experiment” is a deflection. As a software developer, it is 100-level course knowledge that you don’t test your theory or experiment in a Production environment. When it comes to polling, the national public is just such an environment.
So they weren’t experimenting…as you suggested. They got caught forging data and then made up a story as a cover. In my line of work, that would result in immediate termination. As Steve W. suggested, what they’re doing is fraudulent and worthy of punishment.
I and my sister are inundated by political text messages. Almost all of them ask for money. They often have some sort of made up ‘deadline’ — e.g. There is a legal requirement for reporting to the FEC, so we have to raise money before then.
Icky, tedius, aggravating, disgusting, etc. to be sure, but two other observations.
Frequently there are dubious or bizarre messages that they think will emphasize why they need my money. Some recent ones: “Hundreds killed in Ukraine because Trump stopped passing targeting data.” “I’m trailing Susan Collins by 3 points (ed. note: Yay!).”
One of the most dubious: ‘Polls show whoever it is leading Gov. Greg Abbott’. Now I am willing to admit that Paxton is having a close race for the Senate, but that Abbott isn’t going to crush his opponent for governor? Are dogs and cats living together? Have they found Jimmy Hoffa? Is the Pope a secret satanist? I am dubious, and it makes me dubious of all the polling claims in these texts.
But secondly: I recently saw the suggestion that some or many of this sort of text messages were not, in fact, lunatic political messages, but worse — they’re simply the latest type of scam, honestly wanting to steal your money.
**sigh**
Right now the only Independents [sic] in Congress are those who vote and caucus with the Democrats.
If there were a real, centrist Independent party that had a chance of winning some seats, I’d be all over it.
Back on topic — cycle after cycle, we have seen that the polling understates the Republican vote (with perhaps 2022 as an outlier). Republicans have often won an outright majority of votes cast for the House of Representatives.
I have to believe that ‘polling’ organizations like this are part of the reason. But I don’t think they’re the whole reason — a lot of polls skew left.
So, while the polls are discouraging this year, I continue to believe that the GOP has a chance (especially in the Senate). They may not deserve it that much, but they’re way ahead of the Democrats.
And I will be voting, probably a few days early. I have to cancel out my sister’s vote that I help cast for her. 🙂
The mechanics of election fraud are everywhere. The bias of the media and absolute fake data is similarly well distributed. It will be a miracle if the DSA does not “win”.
As I’ve written before, if James Talarico wins in Texas, the entire country is DONE. No greater sign of the end of sensibility exists in this moment.
I will be voting. Hopefully not in vain.
Agree with Steve. Free speech is not absolute. Fraud and election interference should be prosecuted immediately and punished harshly.