We can see one reason why we can’t trust polls from these two headlines:
The Hill: “More Americans oppose Kavanaugh nomination amid partisan rancor.”
AOL: “Nearly two-thirds of voters believe Kavanaugh should be confirmed if the FBI finds no corroboration of the charges.”
We can’t trust polls because they are made to be spun.
The Harvard Center for American Political Studies /Harris Poll online survey of 1,330 registered voters was conducted September 29 to 30. The partisan breakdown is 37 percent Democrat, 32 percent Republican, 29 percent independent and 2 percent other. The full poll isn’t out yet, but here are some results, with my comments.
- 37 percent of registered voters want their Senators to give Kavanaugh’s nomination the thumbs up, while 44 percent want their Senators to vote against him. But 18 percent of respondents are undecided.
And, apparently, a lot of those surveyed didn’t watch the hearings, don’t know that Dr. Ford’s accusations are unsubstantiated, and almost certainly haven’t read the report of the Committees expert prosecutor, who found them dubious based on her testimony. Thanks, Biased Mainstream Media! But the truth will out…
- 44% of men per cent want their senators to vote in favor and another 44% wanting them to vote against Kavanaugh. Among female voters, 44% want Senators to vote against confirming Kavanaugh, while 31% want him confirmed. 24% remain undecided.
Yes, more women are unfair and biased on this nomination. But who wouldn’t want to install a cultural norm where your gender was regarded as automatically unimpeachable, no matter who you accused. with or without evidence?
- 45% of independents currently “don’t back their Senators confirming Kavanaugh,” compared to 28% who want him confirmed.
That’s how The Hill puts it, which is why you can’t trust second hand descriptions of polls, either. “Don’t back their Senators confirming Kavanaugh” now, or ever?
- 60% of Americans believe that Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh should be confirmed if the FBI finds no corroboration of the charges.
That’s encouraging, I suppose, in the “A poll of my Facebook friends would apparently be about 5%” sense. Imagine: 40% of Americans want Kavanaugh rejected even if the accusations by Dr, Ford are completely unsubstantiated. Of course, many of them, if not most, wanted him rejected even before Ford’s re-discovered memories were leaked to the press.
- Nearly two-thirds of voters, 63%, believe Kavanaugh will ultimately be confirmed.
…meaning at least that many think that the FBI will turn up nothing new, and that Senator Susan Collins and Jeff Flake have some guts and decency. I’m pretty sure about the former, not at all sure about the latter.
- About 3/4 of those polled believe Sen. Dianne Feinstein should have immediately turned over the letter from Ford instead of holding it for over two months.
…meaning that about 25% are corrupted beyond hope, OR, like me, believe that Ford’s accusations never should have been taken into consideration at all.
- 66% of Americans support Arizona Republican Senator Jeff Flake’s insistence upon a limited FBI investigation before the final vote, 80% of Democrats, 69% of Independents, but only 45% of Republicans.
Democrats…anything that increases the chances that the vote will be delayed. Independents: Suckers for Jeff Flake’s alleged bi-partisanship, which in this case may just be more of his anti-Trump trolling. No, I no longer trust the motives of Senator Flake. Republicans: a lot believe that Kavanaugh has been tortured long enough. He has—too long—but there’s no down-side of the FBI investigation. It’s not as if Ford left many leads to investigate.
I want to see the whole poll and the exact questions, but I think I see here evidence that the Democrats may suffer for their despicable treatment of Brett Kavanaugh. I sure hope they do.