Early Morning Observations On Election 2020. So Far

Fox News Arizona

I got up at 4:30 am to scan the various news sources after going to bed at 1:30 am following a night of checking the incoming results online and on TV. Don’t expect eloquence….

Observations:

1. Chaos. This is why allowing main-in ballots was either galactically stupid or a deliberate effort to cause confusion and seed armed insurrection. The intent was so, so clear that I really don’t know what to make of those who supported it. Mail-in ballots create problems of security and chain of custody, unnecessarily delaying the determination of critical races, notably the Presidential election. The postal service is not reliable, as I can personally attest with all the checks from ProEthics clients that routinely arrive late, not at all, or end up at the wrong address. The fiasco, was, in turn, yet another creation of the politically motivated fearmongering over the Wuhan virus. It is not hard to vote “safely” in person while wearing masks and socially distancing. I never came close to touching or breathing on another person, or they on me, when I voted yesterday. The Left wants, and has always wanted, a less secure, effortless, commitment-free voting system which it believes helps low-information, easily-led voters to participate who couldn’t be bothered otherwise. (Next will be a push for online voting, once mail-in voting proves to be the catastrophe it was always sure to be.)

2. The narrative leading up to the election, that Biden had an insurmountable lead and that the President was certain to lose was false. Again, whether it was intentionally false to suppress pro-Trump votes, or just astounding incompetence, conformation bias and irresponsible reporting and polling at work, I don’t know (but I have my suspicions.) That narrative never made sense with all of the other factors involves…the nature of the Presidency, the behavior of Democrats since 2016, the disgrace of the news media, the pathetic Democratic ticket, the transparent dishonesty of blaming the President for the lock-down and pandemic deaths, the backdrop of the 2016 election, and more.

As I wrote here, over and over again.

That’s as close to “I told you so!” as I’m going to write, but you know, I do know some things. I’m not just sitting here pulling stuff out of the air. Have a little trust and faith. I think I’ve earned it.

3. Neither candidate should have said a word last night, given the enthusiasm by potential rioters and wackos to engage in “mostly peaceful” mob action—which had already started in my region by about 10 pm. Biden’s announcement of confidence in his eventual victory (when any idiot could see he was in big trouble) was just as provocative, if more subtle, than the President’s warning that the “they” would try to steal the election. The news media, of course, pronounced Joe’s words reasonable and Trump’s outrageous and “authoritarian.” Trump, however, had the advantage of being accurate. Anyone who paid attention to the Florida hanging chad mess in 2000 knows that election, with rules being changed mid-count thanks to partisan Florida courts, was almost stolen, and by some of the same people out to manipulate this one.

4. If anyone needed more evidence of the untrustworthiness of the news media—why would anyone need more?—the  insanely inconsistent anti-Trump bias in the “calling” of states for one candidate or another should settle the issue. One unexpected villain was Fox News, which apparently is determined to prove it can be as biased in the other direction as it has been accused, usually fairly, of being toward Republicans and Trump. The network called Arizona for Biden almost immediately, and before any election day, in-person votes had been counted. (Most sources still have Arizona as undecided) It also called Florida for Biden prematurely, and had to reverse itself. Texas obviously wasn’t going to go for Biden, yet Fox and most networks waited a ridiculously long time to call it. The President ran surprisingly strongly in Virginia (thanks to my vote), but the state was called for Biden while Trump was showing a considerable lead. Several sources declared Nebraska as a Biden “win” although the state’s split electoral vote system will give more votes to Trump.

The usual excuses about “models” and pre-election polling don’t work, because all of the models and polling wer so wrong, and ere exposed as wrong quickly.

5. It looks like, again despite the awful, biased polls, that the GOP will keep control of the Senate, making all of the Democrats’ threats to punish Republicans (and our system of government) for daring to confirm a Supreme Court Justice under the same conditions it has confirmed nominees for SCOTUS for centuries the thuggish bluffs they appeared to be. Good. So much for adding states, packing the Court and making the National Anthem “Imagine,” or whatever other offal Chuck Schumer kept shoveling.

6. As of this hour, the President is leading in more than enough states to give him the 270 he needs to stay in the White House. Any implications that Biden is anything but the likely (and deserved) loser at this point is deliberate misinformation and fake news.

7. To give you some sense of how the emotional Right is feeling, here is Instapundit commentator Sarah Hoyt, one of the more extreme and inflammatory of the conservative site’s pundits, last night shortly after the President’s remarks. Sarah is more than a little over-the-top, but ignore her primary point at your peril:

OKAY, I’M SICK AND TIRED OF THIS AND I WANT TO CALL IT OUT RIGHT NOW: I don’t want to hear a word about Trump’s tone. I don’t want to hear a word about how he crossed a line. I DON’T WANT TO HEAR A WORD.

Listen to me: On one side we have the left, who is running a barely alive candidate, and a woman with all the appeal of week-old fish and no accomplishments she can point to. Add to this they almost didn’t run a campaign, AND went to the point of not having offices in most cities.
For months now, I’ve been looking at this and going “They have a coup planned. The fix is in.” And everyone told me oh, no, I was seeing things.

Tonight we watched states called for Biden before votes were counted, while states that Trump has a solid lead in stop counting. And if you need help seeing what’s before your eyes, the Left has for weeks now claimed Trump was going to attempt a coup. How many years have you known they accuse you of what they’re doing? What are you? Stupid?

Look, they are tainted by the previous failed coups, tainted by (most if not all of them) accepting money from Xi, and FYI China ALWAYS arranges for extra compromise for security, honeypots being their favorite, tainted even by association with Epstein. A second Trump term means a good chance that they go down hard and don’t get up again. ALL OF THEM from the left politicians to the so called “tech lords” are fighting for their lives. They’re cornered rats. There’s nothing they won’t do.

And all we have against them is Trump. Stop calling Trump names.  Put on your big boy or girl pants.They’re fighting for their lives. 

And we are too. Because — look at Venezuela — socialism kills.

8. Yes, once again the President will win without a popular vote majority or plurality, fueling the second waves of riots, another attempt to hijack the Electoral College vote, and more erosion of public trust in the system. But this was always the most likely scenario, unfortunately. It will be, I suspect, for all GOP Presidents until California rejoins the United States from whatever alternate reality it now exists in.

Okay, I’m going back to bed now. Over to you, Sam!

116 thoughts on “Early Morning Observations On Election 2020. So Far

  1. There really does seem to be a transparent attempt at another coup by Democrats:

  2. “Again, whether it was intentionally false to suppress pro-Trump votes, or just astounding incompetence, conformation bias and irresponsible reporting and polling at work, I don’t know (but I have my suspicions.)”

    Probably a little bit of all. I was believing it because A. I had little faith in the American people to not led themselves be led by the nose by BLM and those who blamed the president for the pandemic, and B. I had too much faith that the pollsters had fixed their methodology so another 2016 wouldn’t happen.

  3. So completely offtopic, Jack you can delete if you want.

    Buuut.

    Does anyone have a kindle 10? The battery on my Kindle 4 is going squiffy and I think Black Friday will be time to retire the old girl. So any comments on the current generation device would be appreciated.

  4. Predictions;

    Mitch McConnell won’t put any nominee of Biden before the Senate for confirmation. Neither Judges nor administrative appointees. No bill that doesn’t originate in the Senate will be considered.

    Trump will refuse to leave office, regardless of any Court ruling or result, as he has the very strong support of nearly 50% of the population, and will call for armed resistance against a “Communist Coup”. Will the SCOTUS make a ruling they know will plunge the nation into chaos? Or will they find some flexibility in interpretation of the Constitution, that while counting postal votes is customary, and certainly traditional, it’s not required by the wording , so the issue should be left to the House of Representatives, as is Constitutionally required in the case of a disputed result?

    Those are hypothetical cases though, as Trump may legitimately get the majority of electoral college votes.

    In any case, 400,000 Americans will be dead by the inauguration.

    All scientific, economic and oversight positions in the administration will be moved to the newly created Schedule F, removing them from bureaucratic rules, and anyone deemed disloyal to Trump will be immediately fired. Starting with Fauci. Court challenges will ensue of course.

    One thing – with the huge turnout, no one can say that Trump and this behaviour is not what half of the US population want.

    • Mitch McConnell won’t put any nominee of Biden before the Senate for confirmation. Neither Judges nor administrative appointees. No bill that doesn’t originate in the Senate will be considered.

      Unlikely, but there would be a huge amount of demands for concessions and horse-trading.

      Trump will refuse to leave office, regardless of any Court ruling or result, as he has the very strong support of nearly 50% of the population, and will call for armed resistance against a “Communist Coup”.

      Even Trump isn’t that crazy.

      Will the SCOTUS make a ruling they know will plunge the nation into chaos? Or will they find some flexibility in interpretation of the Constitution, that while counting postal votes is customary, and certainly traditional, it’s not required by the wording , so the issue should be left to the House of Representatives, as is Constitutionally required in the case of a disputed result?

      Most likely 5 will rule for the president on some key ruling that keeps him in office.

      Those are hypothetical cases though, as Trump may legitimately get the majority of electoral college votes.

      Maybe. But not without a lot of unnecessary wrangles and tangles.

      In any case, 400,000 Americans will be dead by the inauguration.

      (shrug) Would you rather it was 4 million? There is no way to stop this virus from taking lives, at least for now, only to slow it down.

      All scientific, economic and oversight positions in the administration will be moved to the newly created Schedule F, removing them from bureaucratic rules, and anyone deemed disloyal to Trump will be immediately fired. Starting with Fauci. Court challenges will ensue of course.

      This is nonsense. FBI Director Wray WILL probably be fired. That’s been in the works for a while. Fauci will probably be called on the carpet, but not fired. If I were Trump, I’d give him the Presidential Medal of Freedom, with distinction, on his way out, after a vaccine is finally found.

      One thing – with the huge turnout, no one can say that Trump and this behaviour is not what half of the US population want.

      • Steve
        I have found the best way for me to preserve my sanity is not to engage the speculators who qualify their inflammatory remarks with the phrase “this is just speculation”.

        People like this have no desire to understand or entertain the possibility the opposition may have legitimate gripes. What they fail to realize is that such intransigence solidifies an unwillingness to give ground to their perspectives. I have stopped considering those opinions as any engagement would be pointless anymore. I will focus my attempts to persuade on open minds only.

      • ” (shrug) Would you rather it was 4 million? There is no way to stop this virus from taking lives, at least for now, only to slow it down. ”

        I respectfully disagree.

        You may very well be right – if nearly a third of the US population deliberately tries to spread the virus out of spite, just to stick it to the libruls, yes, there is no way of even slowing it. That’s what appears to be happening due to Trump’s leadership. Getting rid of him won’t stop that. The damage has been done.

        Have you examined what happened in the Australian state of Victoria? They had an outbreak, with rates similar to Oregon.

        They went ape. Draconian lockdown, state borders blockaded, a “ring of steel” around a city of 5 million people that was the centre of the infection. No one allowed more than 3 miles from home, and only then with a good reason. Serious infractions of human rights, like the blackout on US East coasts during WW2, or the restrictions on travel in California.

        These draconian restrictions have now largely been lifted, as there have now been 6 consecutive double doughnut days. 0 new cases, 0 deaths.

        It took 4 months of real pain, but the economic cost of not locking down was just too great, plus the elderly death toll and even larger number of juvenile permanently disabled. That latter was too much to be borne economically. Especially in the long term. The medical costs in decades to come would be a constant drain.

        As it is, we’re bouncing back.

        The US is not Australia. It’s not even Canada. The costs of dealing with the virus effectively are huge too. Just far smaller than dealing with it ineffectively or pretending it’s all a hoax.

        • But zb, that’s the whole point. You cannot have draconian shutdowns like that in the US. They are illegal, and we won’t stand for them. I wouldn’t stand for them. Canadians, probably. And that’s a good thing for the US as a culture. Essential, in fact.

    • Dueling prediction:

      Trump will make some blustery tweets if Biden wins, but that’s it. No call for armed resistance. That’s silly.

      If Biden wins, there will be no substantial change to the pandemic policy, because, in case you hadn’t noticed, Biden has never had any idea what he would do differently. A national mask policy won’t change anything, other than being despotic and impossible to enforce. A vaccine is physically impossible to speed up, though Biden will take credit when it’s ready. Whatever the hospitalization, death, and case trajectory is now, will continue regardless of who wins. Only media perspective may change.

      No matter who wins, dozens of stories of extreme incompetence, corruption, vote harvesting, and cheating will pop up regarding mailed ballots in the swing states. Most of them will be true. The vast majority of the fraud (by individuals and groups) will have been by or favored Democrats. Most of the media will downplay this, claim Republicans are trying to “suppress the vote,” and there will be a strong push for everyone to continue to be mailed a ballot in the future.

    • Trump will refuse to leave office

      This is a nonsensical prediction, but lets indulge it for two seconds.

      Trump’s term ends Wednesday, January 20 at 12 Noon.

      If Trump does not leave the White House, President Biden will be sworn in elsewhere and have the Federal Marshalls remove Trump. The republic will go on.

      To conclude anything more is idle speculation.

      • Rich in CT wrote, “If Trump does not leave the White House, President Biden will be sworn in elsewhere and have the Federal Marshalls remove Trump.”

        New Presidents are already sworn in elsewhere, at the Capital building is normal.

  5. It’s not over yet. Looks like Biden’s odds of winning are much higher than Trump’s.

    Also, Nate Silver did mention that Biden’s 90% win probability did not mean a landslide win. I consider that fair.

    • I agree, I think Biden will pull it out. His victory will probably be well within the margin of error regarding the easily-gamed vote-by-mail system, and no one will remember to blame Democrats for the chaos that is about to ensue as each swing state has to decide what to do with thousands of highly suspect or confusing mailed ballots. They were warned this would happen by every adult in the room.

      In any case I think Biden’s winning, and good for him. These last few days have been brutal for him, with him forgetting who his family members are and what office he is running for at times. His wife and party have been cruel to subject him to all of this, so at least he won and can be happy. He will inevitably be shunted aside, perhaps directly, but I think he knows this and just wanted to sit in the big chair for a while.

      Silver’s polls were wrong in almost entirely one direction, by roughly double the margin of error, so I don’t think there’s any mitigating that he just sucks.

  6. I’m pessimistic. I fully expect, at this point, for GA, PA, and NC to suddenly find boxes of biden ballots. And then multiple states calling for recounts with 6 point leads. And then the discussion of elector fidelity to kick back up.

          • No. What I am saying is that everything here is conjecture. Let’s use logic. In my home state, Michigan, the rural counties were able to report their numbers sooner (including mail-in votes) because there are fewer votes to count in rural counties. Cities are larger, and trend Democratic, so it is logical to presume that the majority of those votes — once counted — will be blue. So, to put “prove it” another way: “What evidence do you have to suspect that the remaining vote counting will be fraudulent?” So far, I have read nothing to support this.

            Larger states like Florida and Texas are nearly done because they had a different process in place than Michigan. And those states went red. I have no evidence to presume that count was fraudulent — including a battleground state like Florida — so I will accept the result.

            • Yes. Exactly. I’m somewhat disappointed by Jack’s analysis here. I’ve stuck up for Trump in the past, but this is beyond the pale. Is there any proof the ballots aren’t legit and there’s fraud? Would they care if they were winning in these states?

              Why only PA? What about the other states? What evidence is there that these ballots aren’t any good? He’s saying the election isn’t legit and trying to disenfranchise the the will of the people. I find what Trump is doing disgraceful.

      • There are also articles already out there talking about how litigation would go nowhere and a repeat of Bush v. Gore is impossible. Sounds like the president is screwed.

      • I’m confused. What proof is there that there was fraud? Trump is claiming the Dems are trying to steal the election, but it appears Trump is.

        • 1. I never said there was fraud.
          2. “They cheat fast!” was a joke, and that’s why the next sentence talked about the “appearance‘ of impropriety.” Do I think it looks suspicious when suddenly a hundred thousand Biden votes just show up to flip Wisconsin? Yes. It looks suspicious.

          • How do you figure Trump is trying to “steal” the election? He is accurate that the Democrats have a record of trying to change rules mid-election, and the delayed counts are, as I said, suspicious. I also said neither of the candidates should have said anything.

            Mail-in ballots are not secure or reliable, as I have written and experts agree. The Democrats wanted them, and worked to scare voters into feeling they needed to be “safe.” Again: voting was safer than going to the supermarket. No, nobody can prove tanyone has manipulated the results, but if you wanted to do so, mail-in ballots are the way to do it.

            • I think Trump calming he won the election and trying to stop the mail-in ballots from being counted In Philly counts as trying to steal the election.

              People claim the mail in ballots are not safe, but how many of them? All of them? 10%? 50%? Do we just throw them all out? Or only the ones in Democratic-controlled areas? What about conservative areas? Are the ballots in conservative states also unreliable? Do we have actual proof that the mail-in ballots HAVE been corrupt? Not merely that they can be.

              The mail in votes are delayed because it takes time to count them all. Again, if there’s some sort of actual proof that there is fraud, I would like to see it. Otherwise, this just seems like a tactic by Trump, who up until this point, I have defended.

              I have constantly supported him the last four years, but this is beyond the pale honestly.

              • If he said they should never be counted, I missed it. He sued to make sure they were counted with GOP monitors, and that the counting be stopped until that could be set up.

                You’re all over the place here. For one thing, the mail-in ballots are a fact, so arguing that they might not be an opening to manipulation is pointless. If they are used, then the possibility exists that they have been bought, or forged, or thrown away, problems that do not exist with in person voting. And its hard to catch—your argument is like the disingenuous argument against voter ID. That the voter fraud in those cases are hard to catch doesn’t mean it isn’t a needless threat to the integrity of elections. History tells us that if there are ways to steal elections, people will try to steal them. Mail-in ballots make elections easier to steal. It is a reasonable presumption that the party that pushes for an insecure system is doing so to benefit itself.

                Gee, Tom, why would the President be suspicious that Democrats were not playing fair, and bending the rules and law to defeat him? Can you think of some reasons? Incidents? Fake documents? Lies by leaders of the party?

                • I have not problem with the votes being counted with a GOP monitor, but Trump’s claims that there is fraud and that he won the election is unfounded.

                  If the integrity of the mail in ballots are compromised, do we just throw all of them all out? Which ones? How many? How do we know the fraud only swings one way?

                  It’s fine to speculate that the Dems have done something illegal, but is there actual proof? That’s what I’m confused about.

                  • Unethical also counts. Remember where you are.
                    Then there’s this, which I don’t trust, since it’s O’Keefe…

                    BREAKING: Michigan @USPS
                    Whistleblower Details Directive From Superiors: Back-Date Late Mail-In-Ballots As Received November 3rd, 2020 So They Are Accepted

                    “Separate them from standard letter mail so they can hand stamp them with YESTERDAY’S DATE & put them through”

              • As far as mail in ballots, we don’t have a generous plenty of evidence because they’ve not been used here on a large scale. As well, I believe that most of the states that have used them in the past have tended to be one party states — obviously if the result is pre-ordained, there is less need to cheat.

                But look at Europe. My understanding is that the vast majority of countries in Europe ban mail-in voting precisely because they have a documented history of fraud with postal balloting. I believe that typically they only allow voting by mail for people who are actually out of the country — and sometimes not even for them.

                Anecdotal tales abound in this country about vote fraud — tales of the Cook County machine, or Texas voting shenanigans come to mind. But it has gotten bound up in partisan talking points on both sides to the point where people seem to look at this issue with their eyes tightly closed these days. Don’t confuse anyone with any facts, whatever they might be.

                Ultimately we do ourselves no favors if we refuse to even admit the possibility of fraud. Hard to put safeguards into place against something that you refuse to admit is possible.

  7. Why are mail-in ballots fine for military and retirees on vacation but nobody else? I voted in person, but it took nearly 3 HOURS out of my day. My experience may not be typical, but many, many people can’t take that kind of time off of work — and voting should not just be for the rich. Several states have always had mail in voting and the process has shown to work well. The Republicans always supported mail-in votes until this election — because military and retiree votes helped them.

    This is not a soft coup. We knew before the election that some states would not have all the votes counted yesterday per their election rules

    I can’t follow your train of thought here. First, it’s, “I told you so,” regarding the lack of blue wave, but then deep concern about the validity of blue votes that may be counted today and tomorrow. So, you essentially trust numbers that show Republican wins, but do not trust them if they show Democratic wins. Sure, no bias here.

    I am willing to put my faith in the process. If Trump emerges victorious, I will weep for this country but accept the results. We’ll see if Republicans can do the same.

    • Still Spartan asked, “Why are mail-in ballots fine for military and retirees on vacation but nobody else?”

      Military votes absentee, there is a big difference between that and unsolicited mail in ballots being sent to every registered voter in a district or state.

      • By that, you mean unsolicited mail ballot applications? I received three applications, 2 from PACs and one from the county directly but I had to send one back to receive a mail-in ballot.

        What’s so wrong with sending out applications? Be specific.

        • Because people are convinced (based on no evidence whatsoever) that if they returned all three of those applications, they’d magically get three ballots that they could return and all would be counted, because they don’t bother to do any research at all as to whether controls exist.

          Meanwhile in the real world I moved in the midst of the early voting period, thought I did the paperwork properly, submitted an early vote, and then the nice people at the township office called and said “because of a processing delay on your address change, your first ballot actually is NOT valid. Here is what you can do and how to do it to vote again under your correct registration address.” It’s almost like people are tracking these things and making sure everything is handled correctly.

            • If I hadn’t bothered to vote in person and my ballot was obtained by someone else, there are absolutely zero things preventing someone else from turning it in. No verification whatsoever here in CA. Wasn’t even asked my name. Of course mailing every single person a ballot (or two or three) was a horrible idea. That’s regardless of who wins. Bad ideas are bad.

              On the plus side, I anticipate few riots. Only celebratory Biden victory riots. No fun if you own, say, a shoe store, but less angsty.

                • I have a ballot. It’s sitting on my table now. I was told when I voted in person that if I submitted the ballot, my in-person vote (also not verified) would rule it out.

        • valkygrrl wrote, “By that, you mean unsolicited mail ballot applications?”

          You should know be better than that, I wrote exactly what I meant, there is no ambiguity.

          valkygrrl wrote, “I received three applications, 2 from PACs and one from the county directly but I had to send one back to receive a mail-in ballot.”

          I received at least three of those applications too but none from my district, and get this, one set of those applications to my wife and I was delivered to a neighbor a block away on a different street who personally walked them to my door and handed them directly to me. Our local USPS is absolutely TERRIBLE! For the record, I have a serious problem with those unsolicited application for ballots being sent out to all registered voters, I don’t care where they come from. Any request for an absentee ballot needs to be initiated by the individual voter with their district not inspired by a solicitation via mass mailers to registered voters.

          It’s not the job of the district to get the voters to vote or initiating contact with voters by mailing them instructions, applications or ballots, it’s the responsibility of voters to get off their lazy ass and do what’s required to vote if they want to vote, no exceptions.

          • Any request for an absentee ballot needs to be initiated by the individual voter with their district not inspired by a solicitation via mass mailers to registered voters.

            I think you’re gonna run up against the first amendment on that one chief. If it’s legal to send me a ballizion credit card applications, I’m pretty sure it’s legal to print out and mail me as many ballot applications as they want to spend money on.

            It’s not the job of the district to get the voters to vote or initiating contact with voters by mailing them instructions, applications, or ballots

            Why not? Isn’t there a state interest in having people actually participate in the elections?

            • valkygrrl wrote, “I think you’re gonna run up against the first amendment on that one chief. If it’s legal to send me a ballizion credit card applications, I’m pretty sure it’s legal to print out and mail me as many ballot applications as they want to spend money on.”

              What the hell are you talking about? I said absolutely NOTHING,/b> about anything being illegal or making it illegal. You extrapolated what I wrote to the absurd.

              • But that’s just it, I think it is part of their job. Here in Illinois they HAVE to send you a mailer notifying you of an upcoming election, where and when you can vote, and all that. Offering you the chance to vote by mail is certainly in the same spirit.

                • valkygrrl wrote, “Here in Illinois they HAVE to send you a mailer notifying you of an upcoming election, where and when you can vote, and all that.”

                  You’ve got to be kidding me; Illinois thinks their voting age public is so ignorant that they don’t actually know when an election is coming up and so stupid that they can’t figure out how to vote? Those mailings must cost the state between 1.5 and 2.5 million dollars for each election; that’s your tax dollars insulting the intelligence of the people of Illinois.

                  • Yeah, I don’t spend a lot of timing worrying about the date of off-year primaries, I just wait for the mailer to tell me what the date is a month-ish out. Good stuff, five stars, would vote again.

              • Steve: “It’s not the state’s job to encourage voting”

                Valky: “The state has a compelling interest to encourage voting”

                Steve: “Did you not comprehend that I, Steve, said it’s not their job?”

                Psst, Steve: she gets what you said, she just thinks you’re wrong.

    • Because there were fewer and a manageable amount. Let’s see here, just as the president starts to pull ahead in the states that will decide things, those states, and no others, stop counting. When they begin again, suddenly a HUGE amount of ballots, all for the opponent, appear. This includes a sudden pipe burst in exactly the room of exactly the building to cause an issue in GA. In the meantime, the key state that’s probably going to end up deciding things says they are going to apply the laxest rules of all, no postmark, no signature, nada, while the AG of that state DARES the president to challenge it. This after Roberts punted. Now he may end up having to decide it for real.

      • Some states have always done mail-in ballots. There is no difference between a machine reading a mail in vote versus an in-person vote. This is just people’s guts telling them something is fishy. Cities have larger numbers of ballots, and cities tend to be blue. It takes longer to count those obviously. This is not hard. No conspiracy.

    • “If Trump emerges victorious, I will weep for this country but accept the results. We’ll see if Republicans can do the same.”

      Well, let’s see, that will be ONE Democrat, vs. the entire party and its allies that never accepted the last result, which wasn’t challenged, for four years until they could devise a way to get back in power.

      Of course the Republicans won’t accept the results. And Democrats are ethically estopped from criticizing them—they broke the norm.

      • Journalist Richard Baris, who’s been following this closely, says that Wisconsin is probably legit, the blue areas overperformed this time out the way they didn’t for Hillary. Michigan, however, he thinks is suspect, due to the huge change, all from mail-ins. The WH might ask for a recanvass. He does not think PA or GA will flip.

    • Well Sparty, I think you and your generation have won this presidential election. Good luck. I hope you’re happy with Kamala Harris as President and that running the country the way you think it should be run works out for you and the rest of us. Enjoy taking the car for a spin.

    • I’m with you 100%. The mail in ballots are a good idea during a pandemic. Just because Jack is okay going to vote in person, doesn’t mean others are. It’s not like this is a new process. We use mail-in ballots all the time. We also knew it would take some time to count them.

      I also said the same thing you did about the red states! Why is only PA contestable but not other states? What proof is there that Philly’s votes aren’t legit but other states are? Couldn’t Biden claim all the red states’ votes aren’t legit as well?

      There has to be evidence and I haven’t seen any.

      • 1. A bad and easily corrupted voting method is bad regardless of what the excuse or justification is, There’s a reason otherf countries outlawed it.

        2. Who said only PA is” contestable”? Not me. What I said was, and is, that it is unconscionavble that the state didn’t prepare to have it votes counted on time.

        • Sure, but what reason do we have to believe that the votes have actually been corrupted? How do we know Trump hasn’t corrupted the votes? Why do we think the Democrats have? Why do we not think the votes in the red states have been corrupted?

          And yes, Philly is incompetent. I have no problem having the votes recounted. But I see no proof for Trump to claim he won the state or that there’s wide-spread fraud. The fact that the 2000 election had issues isn’t evidence for it happening now.

          • 1. These are Democrat run states. How would “Trump ” have control of them?
            2. The postal workers’ union endorsed Biden, speaking of the appearance of impropriety.
            3. Please don’t use words I don’t. I didn’t say the votes have been “corrupted.”
            4. Wisconsin, where all these Biden votes were suddenly “found.” Trump has a substantial lead in Penn., and now a large number of votes are going to be received, found or counted after the election that will, he thinks, will somehow some way manage to edge out a win for Biden. But he certainly can’t say he “won” the state. He can say he believes he won the state, but Trump doesn’t do language
            5. The 2000 election was an example of the Democrats using rule changes and court challenges to try to flip an election after they had lost. It is the only party in the last 150 years to do that. That they were planning on a similar strategy in 2020 was made clear in their questioning of Justice Barrett.
            6. I am quite convinced that the whole party and its leadership is corrupt, Tom. I think I’ve proven that quite convincingly.

            • So, mail in ballots are easily corruptible, but only for the party who controls that state? Okay…What about red states then? How do we know the republicans didn’t commit fraud in those states? Because the postal union endorsed Biden?

              This all conjecture and honestly, sounds like a conspiracy theory. If there is voter fraud in the mail in ballots, or corruption or whatever you’re implying, I would like to see it.

              And I don’t understand your issue with votes being “found.” Or when you said “Do I think it looks suspicious when suddenly a hundred thousand Biden votes just show up to flip Wisconsin? Yes. It looks suspicious.”

              I don’t know what “votes just show up” means. How should the votes show up? Should the votes show up slowly? Not show up at all?

              And look, I come to your blog every day, it’s the first thing I read when I get up. I love it. I probably hate the Dems as much as you. I just don’t like the accusations by Trump that the election isn’t legitimate with zero evidence. It’s all conjecture and instilling doubt into our elections. It’s very dangerous.

              If there’s really an issue with the mail in ballots, there’s a proper way to handle it. The way Trump is handling it is not the responsible way.

              • So, mail in ballots are easily corruptible, but only for the party who controls that state?

                No, Tom, they are insecure period, anywhere. However, only one party pushed to vastly expand them

                Okay…What about red states then? How do we know the republicans didn’t commit fraud in those states? Because the postal union endorsed Biden?

                We don’t know anything (yet) but we do know that had more of the electorate voted after, say, the Hunter Biden story, Biden’s weak performance in debate #2, the performance of Justice Barrett, and the comments by Biden about ending the oil industry and refusing to tell the American people his position on court packing, plus spouting more and more gibberish, there’s a substantial chance that the tallies would have been much different. Why do you think all the trends and latest polls showed Trump gaining support?

                This all conjecture and honestly, sounds like a conspiracy theory.

                The “cosnpiracy” accusation has been used to deny one illegal or unethical effort against this President after another. Or did you not comprehend the gist of my previous comment, “Gee, Tom, why would the President be suspicious that Democrats were not playing fair, and bending the rules and law to defeat him? Can you think of some reasons? Incidents? Fake documents? Lies by leaders of the party?”

                If there is voter fraud in the mail in ballots, or corruption or whatever you’re implying, I would like to see it.

                So would I. And anyone who expects to find it is, based on past conduct and “the appearance of impropriety” so far, is completely reasonable to do so. Especially the President, who has the scars from previous tactics.

                And I don’t understand your issue with votes being “found.” Or when you said “Do I think it looks suspicious when suddenly a hundred thousand Biden votes just show up to flip Wisconsin? Yes. It looks suspicious.” I don’t know what “votes just show up” means. How should the votes show up? Should the votes show up slowly? Not show up at all?

                You really don’t see anything wrong when a huge number of votes for just one candidate in Milwaukee are tallied all at one? Surely I don’t have to explain that. Maybe this helps: https://mkecitywire.com/stories/564495243-analysis-seven-milwaukee-wards-report-more-2020-presidential-votes-than-registered-voters-biden-nets-146k-votes-in-city

                “I probably hate the Dems as much as you.”

                I do not hate the Democrats at all. Hate is not an issue here.

                I just don’t like the accusations by Trump that the election isn’t legitimate with zero evidence.

                He has four years of evidence.

                And again (and again) I wrote that he should not have said anything, and should not until the votes are settled, whatever actions the party may take.

                If there’s really an issue with the mail in ballots, there’s a proper way to handle it. The way Trump is handling it is not the responsible way.

              • Tom wrote, “So, mail in ballots are easily corruptible, but only for the party who controls that state?”

                Jack wrote, “No, Tom, they are insecure period, anywhere.”

                Jack is 100% correct.

                The chain of custody of ballots that have been mailed out en masse using voter registration rolls cannot be properly verified, nor can the chain of custody of the voter’s completed ballot; it’s a system that’s wide open to fraud, attempted fraud, voter intimidation, ballot theft, loss of ballots, loss of ballots in the mail, ballots arriving via mail after the election, ballots not being properly postmarked, etc. etc. The political left is actively ignoring these security issues and that tells me that they simply don’t care about the security of our elections; it’s signature significant to actively ignore security of our elections.

                The United States Postal Service (USPS) has proven to me over the last 10+ years that they’re willfully negligent and have a unusually high tolerance/acceptance for utter incompetence. The USPS is unreliable. My local Postmaster has been inundated with regular complaints about their poor service, I’ve personally contacted them so many times that I’ve gone over their heads straight to the Postmaster General in Washington DC; we’ve gone through at least 3 Postmasters in the last 5 years. There was a time when I had the same postal carrier for over 25 years and he didn’t screw up mail delivery, that has dramatically changed over the last 10+ years, carriers seem to change with the wind now and are constantly screwing up deliveries.

                In person voting using photo ID’s is the only voting system that is not open to the same kinds of fraud, criminal activity, negligence and incompetence.

                In-person voting I trust; this is how I choose to vote.

                In-person absentee voting I trust, meaning not using the USPS in any way; individuals personally pickup their ballot and personally deliver their ballots, hand-to-hand transfers or locked drop boxes at the clerks office. The military has been using absentee voting for years even though it’s using the USPS, they literally have no other choice, it must eventually go through the USPS; to my knowledge there is absolutely no tracking to know if 100% of the military votes cast are actually being counted.

                I do not trust mass mailed out ballots systems. Yes there are some states that do this and claim that it’s just as good in every way as voting in person, I say bunk!

                I will never trust 100% digital or online voting systems. I will loudly oppose (and have done so locally) any voting system that eliminates a physical ballot that the voter personally fills out in a voting booth so hand recounts counts can be performed if necessary. Personally; I think that all voting machines should be 100% verified by actually hand counting 100% of the paper ballots that the machine reads; if it takes a few days even a week to verify the count then so be it, there is already time built into the system to verify accuracy. We the public do not actually need to know the verified outcome of the election count totals until just before the Electoral College convenes.

                In my opinion; insuring that only qualified citizens vote, one-person-one-vote, security and accuracy are the primary functions of our voting system. Three of those four items listed cannot be insured using mass mailed out and subsequently mass mailed in ballots.

  8. Dane County (Madison area) in south central Wisconsin went 75.7% Biden and 22.9% Trump. Those are similar to the numbers in the San Francisco bay area. Now you know why Paul and I say we live in a progressive bubble surrounded by reality.

    • 77 Square Miles Surrounded By A Sea Of Reality Anthem (to the tune of Star Spangled Banner)

      *Oh How Proud We Must Be…Of Our Mid West Berke Ley

      What so Smugly We Hail…Grand Ideas That Just Fail

      You Can’t Spit And Can’t Smoke…Don’t Think This Is A Joke

      We Applaud Our Free Speech…Lest It’s Something We Don’t Preach

      ProPerTy Tax So High…We Just Sit Down And Cry

      Politically Correct…If Not You Are Suspect

      New Business We e Abhor…We JuuUh Uh St Show Them the Door

      Unless They Are for…Inane Things We Adore.

      *Pressing Priority…One More Sister City

      Ride Bikes On Bike Paths…Or You Will Incur Our Wrath

      Mandatory Sick Leave…Failed And Surely We Grieve

      If We Come Up Short…We Are Not such A Good Sport

      When WE Needed Money… Goodman’s, Jerry Frautschi

      They Gave Us A Bunch…We Messed Up That Free Lunch

      Much Pomp But Not Much Substance…And Per Er Pe Eh Tual Offense

      Common Council Yes We Have…Just Not Much Common Sense

      *Mayor Dave Kisses Feet…Of The Lefty Elite

      They Back Some Dumb Rules…Follow Them Or Be Thought Fools

      Roof Rain Gardens and More…Co-op Grocery Stores

      We Are All Very Green…To the FAR LEFT We Lean

      We All Do LUV Al Gore…Tolerance We Are For

      But If You Lean Right…Then You We DO Deplore

      But When Push Comes To Shove, We Don’t Know What We’re Made Of

      It’s A City Where We Live…And A City We LUV

  9. I think people are starting to look more critically at what they are told. We had a state ballot initiative that was expected to pass. All advertising, all news coverage was favorable. There wasn’t a single ad, or a single commentary in the media opposing it. I saw ads featuring 2 people I know personally promoting the bill. I voted against it. It failed. Why? I know they were lying about it. Most other people did as well. I hate the fact that two people I normally trust, two people who do work that I admire, would lie to get a bill passed that they thought would do more good than harm. The bill would have not allowed judges to consider previous non-violent felony convictions when determining sentencing. The ads featured people talking about convictions of 20+ years for stealing a bicycle or food.

    So, why did people vote against such a well supported, common-sense bill? Well, people know that it is rare for someone to go to prison even for their second or third non-violent felony conviction. You can be arrested and convicted of dealing drugs 4 or 5 times before being sent to prison the first time. Prisoners are let out early, only to commit more crimes. What the well-meaning elites don’t understand (in their gated communities) is that these very people are the ones that degrade the quality of life for the rest of us. If you are living paycheck to paycheck and people shoot out or break the windows of your car a couple times each year, that can drive you to homelessness. Yeah, maybe they did give someone a 20 year prison sentence for stealing a bicycle, but it was his 85th offense. When I see a guy drive into a parked car and find (1) he was driving someone else’s car, (2) he had no insurance, (3) he had a revoked driver’s license, (4) he had drugs in the vehicle scattered all over the ground because he flipped the car, (5) was on state probation for distribution of drugs (6) was on federal parole for home invasion with a firearm and body armor as a felon and then find out that nothing happened to him, you don’t think the criminal justice system is too harsh. Yeah, that guy had a newish GMC Yukon the very next day he was driving. They are trying to approach this from the wrong end. You don’t fix the problem by focusing on people with 30+ offenses, you fix it by focusing on the 1st offense. Letting people escape punishment the first time only encourages them to do it again. We had a surgeon who killed someone while driving drunk recently. Until the judge read ’17 years’, this surgeon thought he was going to just get a fine. Why? Well, he ran into and destroyed a police car while driving drunk and no charges were filed, so why would this be any different?

    Maybe people are beginning to wake up.

  10. “6. As of this hour, the President is leading in more than enough states to give him the 270 he needs to stay in the White House. Any implications that Biden is anything but the likely (and deserved) loser at this point is deliberate misinformation and fake news.”

    In-person voting in cities usually takes longer to count, because (to take my home state for an example) any given precinct in Detroit is going to have an incredibly higher amount of work to do than whole rural counties in the Upper Peninsula. Cities lean blue. Mail-in votes take extra time to count, and (the conventional wisdom tells us) that mail-in voters lean blue.

    So what’s your basis for number 6? ANY implication that Biden isn’t likely to lose is deliberate misinformation? That assertion is laughable at its face. There’s a very compelling argument that Trump could have an early lead but lose down the stretch as urban precincts and mail-in votes are finalized. I assume the next move for many of his supporters will be to assert without evidence (as is already happening here) that these votes must be fraudulent, vaguely implying that a box of all-democrat votes was magically “found” instead of acknowledging that a dense city precinct finally finished their report.

    You’re becoming just one more part of the noise that picks a side and then scrambles for justifications why nobody can disagree without being evil, idiotic, or both. Via your posts here we’ve seen you come to the conclusion that Biden is the bad guy, and that Trump should win- and how you’re stooping to the claim that anyone who says anything else is just a liar.

    • There’s also a very compelling argument that a dense city precinct waited until all the other precincts finished theirs, and then “counted” enough votes to overcome that. There’s also a very compelling argument that a pause in counting raises questions as to just why there was that pause. You have to admit that a big jump AFTER a pause looks pretty bad.

        • Fellow Michigander: I don’t know if there’s any way we can make people TRULY understand the difference in scope between “count ballots in Detroit” and “count ballots in Negaunee”

      • The difference is “Big city precinct has more work to do, takes longer to do it” is exactly what you’d expect just because doing more work takes more time. Assuming fraud adds another element to the supposition, when there’s no particular evidence of it. Do you have anything to suggest fraud other than a gut feeling that it’s weird for city precincts to report later than rural precincts?

        I’m curious what you mean by a “pause.” To me it looks like precincts ABCDEFG all closed the polls, counted the votes, and reported- meanwhile precincts HIJ were still handling voters that were in line when the polls closed and counting way more votes. That’s not a pause, that’s just different parts of a process taking different lengths of time.

        Personally I’d support measures to prevent precincts from reporting until all counting is complete. For me it’s not because I suspect some mass fraud, I’m just tired of breathless predictions based on 10% of the vote, then totally different breathless predictions based on 15% of the vote… I’d prefer to just let it wait until everyone can agree “OK, here’s the tally and here’s who won.”

        • Everything you said sounds reasonable to me. I’m inclined to agree. Changes in who’s leading are not prima facie evidence of cheating; that’s to be expected when we’re counting ballots from different locations. Otherwise there’d be no point in counting all of them.

      • I’ll also add this- the fact that there COULD be voter fraud, does not negate the fact that Biden legitimately overtaking Trump down the stretch is also a distinct possibility. My issue isn’t with the notion that Trump could win, my issue was with Jack’s assertion that ANY prediction other than a Trump win was deliberate misinformation.

        • Wait, when did I say THAT? Predictions aren’t misinformation—they are predictions. Claims that predictions that are misguided are based on “science” when they are based on bias or subjective agendas are misinformation.

          • “Any implications that Biden is anything but the likely (and deserved) loser at this point is deliberate misinformation and fake news.”

            An implication that Biden isn’t the likely loser is, transitively, an implication that Trump IS the likely loser. If you’d asked me late last night what I thought would happen, I would predict that Trump took an early lead but was likely to be overtaken down the urban/mail-in stretch. This would be “an implication that Biden is [not] the likely loser,” AKA “fake news” according to what you said.

            • He was the likely and deserved loser. Obviously, or I thought it should be obvious, I was speaking of those professionally responsible for informing the public. You can imply anything you want to, or believe. Those upon whom the public base their understanding of what is happening have a higher duty.

              • That said, I assumed you meant I had written that in a post. In that comment, what I said was over-stated and inexact, but my comments in discussions are not fairly held to the same standard as what I post in articles. They are written quickly and largely unfiltered and unedited. If they weren’t, I would have time to interact with readers at all.

                • I was quoting Item number 6 from the main post.

                  I would also say that those professionally responsible for keeping the public informed should have just as much ability to point out “Trump is leading in these states by X votes, but factors Y and Z will likely favor Biden and could result in him winning” as any random person. That’s important information to combat the mistaken impression that “Trump had Michigan locked down and then out of NOWHERE thousands of Biden ballots showed up! It must be fraud!”

                  • Luke: you’re right, I’m wrong. Gee, I guess I should have checked before shooting off my mouth. My mistake—I’m sorry.

                    The actual statement was, 6. As of this hour, the President is leading in more than enough states to give him the 270 he needs to stay in the White House. Any implications that Biden is anything but the likely (and deserved) loser at this point is deliberate misinformation and fake news.

                    I was referring to the constant excuse-making and spin from the various networks. I should have been clearer “any.” What I should have specified was what I was hearing, which was framing the information to avoid admitting the truth: “This looks bad for Biden, and is a complete surprise given all the projections.’ THEN you can say that all is not lost, and what you just wrote. Most of them weren’t doing that, but dancing around what was right in front of our eyes.

                    To his credit, George Stephanopoulas said, “This seems to be following 2016,” which at least suggest that Biden’s in trouble.

    • Yeah, the post today is a little odd to me. I usually agree with 95% of what is said on the blog, but not today. Like, there’s no reason to think Fox’s call of Arizona was bad. I watching it live, they brought the expert on and he explained how they came to that conclusion. I also don’t see any reason why the votes in PA aren’t legit.

      • Because at the same time they were waiting forever to call states where Trump was obviously winning, like Florida and Texas, they called Florida (and wrongly) and Arizona based on minimal votes. It was a duble -standard, and when your head state-caller is a lifetime Democratic operative, it looks bad, and is bad.

      • Re: “Like, there’s no reason to think Fox’s call of Arizona was bad.” There was and is considerable reason to think Fox’s call of Arizona was wrong, TR, as I said. We know it was wrong to call it that early, because as of now, the result there is in doubt. If it’s in doubt now, it was not settled quickly after Arizona closed its polls. Right? So Fox’s call was, in fact, suspicious and misleading.

    • The argument proffered that cities have more work so it takes longer assumes it is staffed at the same levels as less populous rural areas. Further rural areas may not have last mile connectivity or bandwidth to transmit data as fast. It is equally possible that rural areas have fewer workers who perform better than greater numbers if city poll workers. So without information stating that cities and rural areas are not proportionately staffed to count votes in a timely manner you cannot use that argument otherwise you validate Jack’s statement that they should have staffed up appropriately.

  11. Oregon approved a measure decriminalizing small amounts of hard drugs. Also magic mushrooms (psilocybin) can now be used therapeutically.

    Judging from the multiple tweets of “fine people” excited to move or fly to the state to partake, even if Trump wins, Oregon loses. At least Portland didn’t elect a klAntifa member for mayor (yet).

    • I saw cocaine and heroin are now legal in Portland. The mail in ballots from Venezuela and Afghanistan must have made it to the Rose City in plenty of time!

  12. Well, I did my best to ignore the media frenzy on Election Day. I succeeded. But I still suffered.

    I did not sleep well last night, and when I did sleep, I dreamt. The one dream I remember, was about Biden winning narrowly but convincingly enough to make people wonder why Trump had not conceded. People were angry about the “premature” conclusion that Biden had won. People were angry that Trump appeared to be deliberately and unjustifiably refusing to concede. People were angry that Trump was not being given the opportunity to make a case for not conceding yet. The dream ended, I woke up briefly to smack my dry mouth that had been hanging open since I currently do not have a CPAP machine to use.

    But the oddest, the most haunting thing happened when I woke up.

    Before I even began, reluctantly (like an Eeyore), to look up the status of election results, a song popped into my head. (Now it has been in my head all day!) “Seven Islands Suite,” by Gordon Lightfoot. I did not even realize that the lyrics must have sunk into my memory, decades ago. It’s a wonderfully melodious song, as are many of Lightfoot’s (“The Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald” is far more famous, and while it is as fine a ballad as one might find, its melody is very “blue-collar,” even “drunken monotonous.”) I never even practiced the guitar strumming for that song. I worked very hard to learn several of his other songs. But I have not even thought of them for many years.

    When I got to the line, “Every nation will be shaken, keep it together, don’t let it slip,” I exhaled my lungs empty, and didn’t breathe in again for a few seconds. I won’t say it freaked me out. It just hit me like a punch in the gut. I had used Tuesday to tune out and turn off all the media coverage of Election Day. I prayed often and intensely. That song popping into my head was like an unexpected answer from God.

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