Ah, the J Curve! That’s what you see above, and it has many applications. Herman Kahn, the late futurist who was known as the smartest man in the world (is there anyone who holds that title today?) told me that the J Curve was especially valuable regarding new technologies that destroy previous concepts of what was possible. The microchip. The internet. Now, it’s AI.
Talk about fast! Just four days ago, a crude A.I. battle between Tom Cruise and Brad Pitt had Hollywood running for Xanax. Now the German Dor brothers said, “Hold our Augustiner-Bräu!” and produced this in a single day:
Soon Hollywood producers, directors and actors will be jumping off buildings like panicked stockbrokers on Black Tuesday, 1929. Or not. The smart ones will realize that they need to start making better movies. It shouldn’t surprise anyone that the typical shock and awe special effects orgies like “2012” and “San Andreus” can be made by a bot. It’s crap made for morons, stoners and people who can’t sit though “On the Waterfront.”
Let me know when the J Curve produces AI that can evoke Paul Scofield, John Hurt, Colin Redgrave, Susannah York and Wendy Hiller in this favorite Ethics Alarms scene:
…or the rest of the movie, for that matter. Until then, if then ever comes, talented actors, writers and directors have nothing to worry about. Intelligence and talent have always been weakly correlated, if at all.
Ethics Alarms 
You’ve got to love the hooker eye makeup, and the running, leaping and hurdling in knee-high, high-heeled boots. Leather, of course.
I thought it was a Tesla Cyber truck advert.
Some aspect of quality is impressive. But like LLM content, if you were to somehow graph human generated plot/content the curve would follow some predictable forms but would have jaggedyness like a stock market graph. AI generated content seems to be weak in that area as all of the content feels like it has been smoothed like a 5 year rolling average graph.
AI will never be able to generate, perhaps copy but not generate, content like Pulp Fiction “want some bacon”: https://youtu.be/c0zJSgHDnpw?si=Yvgg1523d4IDbDOg
The J-curve is a conceptual graph nor a precise. As Herman said, it indicates that a phenomenon is going to accelerate in impact and and consequences logorithmically absent the 1% likelihood of a convergence of bad management and bad luck.